On A Dagger's Edge
Yemen has become America's surprise ally in fighting terrorism. But can the Muslim nation survive its own struggle with endemic poverty and extremism?
Underlying any discussion of reform, however, is one uncomfortable factor--nobody can picture Yemen without Saleh in charge. Even his most implacable critics fret that there is no viable alternative today. Sumayya Ali Bajji is a U.S.-educated former journalist who has returned from years of living abroad to run against Saleh in the upcoming September election. As the nation's first female candidate, she has little chance of winning, but she is already speaking loudly about what she says is the eroding position of women in Yemen. "Today, my daughter in Yemen cannot do what I did as a child--ride a bicycle, swim, ride a horse," she says. Still, when asked what her biggest fear is, she does not hesitate: "Should Saleh die in office, God forbid, what would happen? Because there is no infrastructure of government."
"Fanaticism." At the same time, there is a fear that U.S. leverage in Yemen might be diminishing. High oil prices have lessened the influence of foreign aid money on the government's decision making. "Where are the incentives for the president and the government to modernize and push for more democracy?" asks Tayeb, who is critical of the recent cuts in aid. There has also been some domestic backlash to the government's cooperation with Washington on counterterrorism, given the anger over Yemeni detainees in Guantanamo Bay and U.S. policy in Iraq and Israel. "It all creates public opinion that is not in favor of, or is even hostile to, any cooperation between the American and Yemeni governments," says Alami, the interior minister.
The security situation has also made it more difficult for U.S. diplomats to reach out to Yemenis. Face-to-face meetings are difficult, with U.S. officials ensconced inside their fortresslike embassy compound. "They don't trust us when we say we're here to help them," says one U.S diplomat. "There are liberal, modern, western-oriented people, and they still don't trust us."
All of this is part of a deeper battle. "The real conflict in the country is not between the government and the opposition but is between traditional powers still locked in the 19th century and the forces of modernization that try to grope their way into the modern age," says Mohammed al-Sabri, a leading figure in the opposition. "The traditional forces are besieged, but when your room for maneuver has shrunk, you become very tense and aggressive." He points to a simmering rebellion, fueled by radical Islamists, in the northern town of Sadah, where hundreds of soldiers and rebels were killed last year. "I expect more dangerous risks in Yemen--extremism and fanaticism," he says. "But it's not related to religion. It comes out of the failure to satisfy life's needs."
Sabri places his hopes in reform. And Yemen's government is starting to talk a good game. "The state and the government are moving ahead with reforms--political reforms, judicial reforms, economic reforms, anticorruption reforms, counterterrorism," says President Saleh. "The country is moving toward modernization." For many, the upcoming local and presidential elections will be a test. And the stakes are high. "What we are afraid of is that the Yemeni people will lose hope in elections as a means of change," Sabri says, "because this is what the traditional forces want."
For photographs and more: www.usnews.com/yemen
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