The Hugo Factor
Venezuela's firebrand president seems stronger than ever. Why the conventional wisdom may be dead flat wrong
The key question now is how the president will use his undivided control of the government. Pointing out that he failed to inspire his supporters to vote in the parliamentary elections, some analysts see serious trouble ahead for the mercurial president. With deep divisions within the Chavez camp, a hard-core revolutionary wing is likely to demand even more radical reforms now that it controls all of the country's political institutions. "It will be easier for dissidence to develop within the Chavez camp itself than for the political opposition to damage him,"says Alberto Garrido, who has written several books about the president. "The opposition does not know what to do; it has neither political leadership nor strategic direction."
The most serious threat to Chavez, a former lieutenant colonel, may come from the military. Although he purged the Army of officers who showed dubious loyalty during the failed 2002 coup, and many retired military personnel have been put to work within the bureaucracy, large segments of the armed forces are unhappy with the close ties to Castro and Chavez's socialist initiatives.
Chavez has proved to be a canny political operator who has outfoxed the opposition time and again. Whether his luck will hold is the key question facing Venezuela.
POPULATION: 25.4 million
LIVING IN POVERTY: 54 pct.
OIL RESERVES: 76 billion barrels (plus oil sands)
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