Bush's Third Term
The president hopes to put 2005 behind him--starting with the State of the Union
When visitors ask President Bush how he deals with pressure, he often points to a portrait of Abraham Lincoln gazing beatifically from a wall near his desk in the Oval Office. The painting, by artist George Henry Story, depicts a confident, serene Lincoln circa 1861, when the Union was embroiled in its struggle with the Confederacy. In tough times, Bush imagines what it was like to be commander in chief when the country was tearing itself apart, with brother killing brother and the survival of the United States at stake. Compared with that, Bush likes to say, he has it easy. What Bush admires about Lincoln, and tries to emulate, is the Great Emancipator's resolve and commitment to a cause--the fact that, as Bush told one guest, "he had such a clear vision about keeping this country united, in spite of the incredibly divisive times in which he lived."
Now Bush is trying to apply the lessons of Lincoln more seriously than ever as he embarks on what he hopes will be a fresh start for his presidency. Bush tells friends that despite the many setbacks of the past year, the country still wants him to provide strong leadership, and that's what he aims to do. But that also means being more realistic, Bush has concluded, so he is ready to trim his sails a bit.
"Last year we played big-ball politics, going for home runs," says a key Republican strategist. "This year will probably be drag bunts and singles." Adds a senior White House official: "We are a nation at war, and it's in this president's DNA to lay out a bold, aggressive vision and agenda--but we'll be realistic in what we ask the Congress to do during midterm elections." Some Bush strategists see 2006 as the start of Bush's "third term."They regard his first four years as a period of solid achievement that culminated in his re-election victory. They see 2005 as a "term" of its own, 12 months marked by disappointment. They hope '06 will start an upswing.
First off, White House strategists expect the Senate to easily confirm Samuel Alito for the Supreme Court in the next few weeks--a victory for Bush just when he needs one. But the real kickoff of 2006 will be the State of the Union address January 31. "The State of the Union will provide a good opportunity to focus on the president and his agenda," Republican National Chairman Ken Mehlman told U.S. News.
Bush will continue to argue that progress is being made against the insurgents in Iraq and that the domestic economy is strong. But Republican insiders say he will also emphasize a series of smaller proposals that they predict will find ready acceptance among voters. This replicates an approach that was successful for President Clinton, who regularly announced small-bore but popular initiatives, such as endorsing the use of school uniforms to enhance discipline and encouraging curfews for teenagers. The tactic helped Clinton stay connected to everyday Americans, which boosted his job-approval ratings even when other things went wrong.
Healthcare. White House officials say Bush will focus in particular on controlling healthcare costs, which polls show is a top priority for voters. Bush is expected, for example, to recommend raising the amount individuals can deposit in health savings accounts, offering additional tax breaks for those who buy private insurance on their own, and allowing more portability for health insurance when people change jobs. He also wants to let small businesses pool their purchases of health coverage across state lines in order to keep costs down. The goal is to shift from a healthcare system based on employer subsidies and union contributions, which White House analysts argue can no longer be counted on to remain solvent or to cover real-life costs. Their alternative is to help consumers find and pay for private insurance on their own.
Yet the issue hanging over everything Bush does is Iraq. A new CNN/ USA Today/Gallup Poll finds that 85 percent of voters consider Iraq a major concern that will affect their vote in midterm congressional elections this fall. (Eighty percent said terrorism is a high priority, and 82 percent named healthcare.) Bush is pleased that his sustained campaigning to defend the Iraq war stopped the erosion of support for the conflict and reversed his slide in the polls. He plans to continue that campaign indefinitely.
Bush is hoping that security improves enough and that the Iraqi government is strong enough to begin pulling U.S. troops out later this year. The continuing drumbeat of insurgent violence is troubling, but White House strategists remain hopeful the situation will settle down. "The more Iraq disappears off the front pages and onto Page A17 or A18, the better for us," says a White House adviser. "At some level, no news is good news." Unfortunately, there's been plenty of news lately about another old nemesis, Iran, whose nuclear ambitions are defying easy solutions. Administration officials are concerned that Iran will become a preoccupation in the months ahead.
They're also worried about terrorism, but they feel they're on the right track. Bush has spent recent months studying terrorism around the world so he can better evaluate the evolving situation. His views have been fundamentally shaped by briefings on the Islamist threat last fall from Gen. John Abizaid, the head of U.S. Central Command. Abizaid, who is in charge of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, refers to "the long war" and argues that the current terrorist movement aims to impose a caliphate on much of the world. The terrorist movement isn't run by a centralized hierarchy, he says, but by overlapping groups resembling organized-crime syndicates. Says a senior U.S. official: "President Bush agrees ... that this is a long-term, difficult, but winnable struggle against a radical Islamist terrorist network--of which Iraq is a very important part." The general's assessment reinforced Bush's instinct that he had to stay the course, as did a fresh tape from Osama bin Laden that threatened new attacks--while, strangely, holding out the possibility of a truce.
Bush also has plans to continue stumping the country to highlight the growing economy--as he did last week at a small business in Sterling, Va. He will argue that his massive tax cuts fueled the recovery and will make the case that Congress should make those cuts permanent this year.
"The economy and Iraq are legacy items," says a prominent Republican who advises the administration. "The White House will want to control the dialogue on them as much as possible. For a while last year, these issues got away from us, and we let the Democrats dominate the debate. We won't let that happen again."
Overall, though, Bush remains a polarizing figure in a deeply divided and worried nation. Gallup finds that 53 percent of Americans believe things are going badly for the United States in Iraq--a slight improvement from the 57 percent who felt that way last October but still a disappointing number for the White House. Bush's job approval is also up a bit in some polls but remains relatively low. A Harris survey found that 43 percent say he is doing an excellent or pretty good job, up from 34 percent in November. But 56 percent said he is doing only a poor or fair job. Perhaps most important, Harris found that 54 percent of Americans think the country has gotten off on the wrong track while only 33 percent say America is heading in the right direction.
Bush strategists agree that last year was the worst of his presidency. In addition to Iraq, the president was excoriated for the weak federal response to Hurricane Katrina. His Social Security initiative went nowhere. Public unease deepened about illegal immigration, American jobs going overseas, and a vast increase in deficit spending.
The scandal over improper lobbying practices in Congress--symbolized by the investigation of lobbyist Jack Abramoff--tarnished the GOP's image, as did the legal troubles of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. Democrats were quick to pounce. "The Republican members of Congress," said Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter, "have neither the ability, nor the credibility, to lead us in a new direction." The indictment of former vice presidential Chief of Staff Lewis "Scooter" Libby didn't help the GOP's standing.
Studying up. To help him develop an agenda for 2006, Bush attended extensive policy briefings in recent months, conducted by specialists from inside the government. Among those who set up and participated in these briefings were Chief of Staff Andrew Card, Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove, and White House counselors Dan Bartlett and Michael Gerson. Abizaid's briefings were part of this series. Bush also met with the heads of various conservative think tanks, such as the Heritage Foundation and the American Enterprise Institute--in part to demonstrate that he is not trapped in the White House bubble. But the meetings weren't just sweetness and light. Conservatives complained that the Republican-controlled Congress had allowed federal spending to get out of hand. Bush promised to rein it in.
One unresolved problem, however, is how to deal with the mushrooming lobbying scandal. Bush wants to side with reformers, but he is concerned that if he makes too much of it all, it will remind voters that both the legislative and executive branches are controlled by the GOP. That might fuel a throw-the-rascals-out movement in this fall's midterm elections. His solution probably will be to remind voters that Congress historically goes through reform movements every decade or so, no matter who is in power, and that this time the Republicans are capable of cleaning up their own house.
On a personal level, Bush is described by aides as upbeat and eager to get started on the 2006 agenda. He got to spend a week relaxing with his family at the Texas ranch over the holidays and hosted close friends such as former Commerce Secretary Don Evans and other old pals from Midland, Dallas, and Austin. The president continues to draw strength from his wife and his daughters, all of whom he wants to travel with him as often as possible from now on--a wish that might start with his scheduled trip to India and Pakistan in early March.
"He feels very good about where we are and where we're heading," says a senior White House adviser. "He is sure of what we're doing in Iraq and with the war on terror and with the economy." Ever the optimist, George W. Bush believes that if he sticks to his guns and demonstrates Lincolnesque resolve, everything will turn out just fine.
This story appears in the January 30, 2006 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.