Bush's Third Term
The president hopes to put 2005 behind him--starting with the State of the Union
Healthcare. White House officials say Bush will focus in particular on controlling healthcare costs, which polls show is a top priority for voters. Bush is expected, for example, to recommend raising the amount individuals can deposit in health savings accounts, offering additional tax breaks for those who buy private insurance on their own, and allowing more portability for health insurance when people change jobs. He also wants to let small businesses pool their purchases of health coverage across state lines in order to keep costs down. The goal is to shift from a healthcare system based on employer subsidies and union contributions, which White House analysts argue can no longer be counted on to remain solvent or to cover real-life costs. Their alternative is to help consumers find and pay for private insurance on their own.
Yet the issue hanging over everything Bush does is Iraq. A new CNN/ USA Today/Gallup Poll finds that 85 percent of voters consider Iraq a major concern that will affect their vote in midterm congressional elections this fall. (Eighty percent said terrorism is a high priority, and 82 percent named healthcare.) Bush is pleased that his sustained campaigning to defend the Iraq war stopped the erosion of support for the conflict and reversed his slide in the polls. He plans to continue that campaign indefinitely.
Bush is hoping that security improves enough and that the Iraqi government is strong enough to begin pulling U.S. troops out later this year. The continuing drumbeat of insurgent violence is troubling, but White House strategists remain hopeful the situation will settle down. "The more Iraq disappears off the front pages and onto Page A17 or A18, the better for us," says a White House adviser. "At some level, no news is good news." Unfortunately, there's been plenty of news lately about another old nemesis, Iran, whose nuclear ambitions are defying easy solutions. Administration officials are concerned that Iran will become a preoccupation in the months ahead.
They're also worried about terrorism, but they feel they're on the right track. Bush has spent recent months studying terrorism around the world so he can better evaluate the evolving situation. His views have been fundamentally shaped by briefings on the Islamist threat last fall from Gen. John Abizaid, the head of U.S. Central Command. Abizaid, who is in charge of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, refers to "the long war" and argues that the current terrorist movement aims to impose a caliphate on much of the world. The terrorist movement isn't run by a centralized hierarchy, he says, but by overlapping groups resembling organized-crime syndicates. Says a senior U.S. official: "President Bush agrees ... that this is a long-term, difficult, but winnable struggle against a radical Islamist terrorist network--of which Iraq is a very important part." The general's assessment reinforced Bush's instinct that he had to stay the course, as did a fresh tape from Osama bin Laden that threatened new attacks--while, strangely, holding out the possibility of a truce.
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