JERUSALEM--Among politicians, the closest Ariel Sharon had to an alter ego is the man now taking his place as prime minister, Ehud Olmert. A former mayor of Jerusalem, elected to the Knesset 32 years ago, Olmert preceded Sharon among Likudniks who saw the settlement expansion and quest for a "Greater Israel" as folly. When he became Sharon's confidant and chief ally in government, Olmert, 60, a savvy, expensively tailored, cigar-smoking pol, was seen as the man who said out loud what Sharon was thinking, the one testing the waters for Sharon's plans. Shortly after Olmert gave a daring 2003 interview calling for extensive territorial withdrawals--including some Arab parts of the "undivided capital" of Jerusalem--Sharon began to unveil his historic disengagement plan.

A cool, authoritative presence, Olmert was prepared for his emergency role during the first, worst years of the intifada, when being mayor of Jerusalem was one of the hardest jobs for any politician in the world. He passed the test, showing empathy and resilience. Olmert left for the cabinet three years ago, with Sharon naming him finance minister and then vice prime minister. Yet his national popularity was low. Olmert was too much the slick politician, and he'd been around forever.

His to lose. By temperament, experience, and ideology, Olmert may be the right man for the dual roles of prime minister and party leader in the March 28 election. The electoral question is whether the politicians and voters who had followed Sharon to Kadima will stand by Olmert. The initial indications are yes. All of the politicians who bolted Likud and Labor have declared their loyalty to him as the new party's new leader. Kadima held its lead in the first opinion poll following Sharon's major stroke. It also showed that the only Kadima member more popular than Olmert is Shimon Peres, 82, who left the Labor Party after losing the leadership to Amir Peretz in a November showdown.

Peretz has since stumbled. A fiery labor unionist, he started off strong, highlighting the issue of poverty. But with Kassam rockets flying out of Gaza daily, he has shown indifference to the issue of security. The few things he has bothered to say on the subject have been either clumsy or too starry-eyed for the Israeli mainstream.

A more sure-footed, if polarizing, figure is the hawkish former Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. "Much of Kadima's support comes from former Likudniks," said pollster Avi Degani, "and if they decide to leave their new home, their natural destination would be their old one." -Larry Derfner