Job 1 For The big guy
Despite growing skepticism, Bush pushes his 'victory plan'
It was a classic case of White House stagecraft--President Bush surrounded by huge made-for-TV signs proclaiming "Plan for Victory," as hundreds of dutiful military men and women at the Naval Academy cheered his latest call for staying the course in Iraq. "America will not run in the face of car bombers and assassins so long as I am your commander in chief," Bush declared. But his tough words last week were undermined just two days later, when 10 marines near Fallujah were killed and 11 wounded by a roadside bomb, the deadliest attack on U.S. forces in four months.
Bush leaves open the possibility of a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq next year, but he refuses to set a timetable. Iraqis, he argues, have become better fighters than they were a year ago, but he also glosses over many problems that are still festering. While more Iraqi soldiers are doing a good job confronting insurgents, for instance, many still don't have the organizational capabilities, equipment, or solidarity to fight as a unified force. Successful Iraqi units are mostly Shiites, Kurds, or militias that may divide along sectarian, tribal, or ethnic lines once U.S. troops are out of the picture. Minority Sunni politicians running in this month's elections seem to be mostly sheiks and patricians who don't represent the communities where insurgents find support. Above all, the insurgency grinds on.
Doubts . Complicating Bush's challenge, an anti-GOP protest vote at home may be rising against him. "Americans don't want to cut and run," says Republican pollster Frank Luntz, "but they want to see a way out." Historian Robert Dallek compares Bush to Lyndon Johnson, who lost credibility on Vietnam by distorting the reasons for getting into the conflict and by overstating progress. "President Bush has lost credibility," Dallek says, noting that recent polls show that as many as 60 percent of Americans think the war was a mistake. "People don't see him as trustworthy. . . . How can President Bush change anything as long as the country sees daily casualties of Americans and Iraqis, and mayhem on the ground?"
U.S. News has learned that Bush and his aides have finally begun to reach beyond their tight West Wing circle for advice. At a recent meeting with former advisers to Ronald Reagan, attended by chief Bush strategist Karl Rove, White House aides gave serious consideration to a number of options offered by the Reaganites, including a prime-time speech to the nation or a prime-time press conference. The goal would be for Bush to address all pertinent questions about Iraq and "speak directly to the American people," says a participant. But no final decision has been made. GOP outsiders are also pushing for a staff shake-up, but it seems more likely that Bush, ever loyal, won't try to solve his problems by firing people. He is more likely to augment his inner circle with some new advisers.
But rebuilding public support for the war remains Job 1. In the run-up to the December 15 National Assembly elections in Iraq, Bush will make his pitch in three more speeches. He will argue that democracy in Iraq is strengthening, the Iraqi economy is improving, and the Mid-east will be a better place when Iraq is stable and peaceful. It amounts to an appeal for trust and patience at a time when both seem to be in short supply.
With Ilana Ozernoy
This story appears in the December 12, 2005 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.
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