Old Dominion Lessons
Let's get the obvious out of the way first: Last week's elections were not great news for President Bush. Sure, it's easy to overstate the importance of the two new Democratic governors in New Jersey and Virginia, as Democrats predictably did: "These folks [candidates] are running away from President Bush like a scalded dog . . .," House Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rahm Emanuel declared. "And that's what's happening to the voters." Giddy hyperbole aside, these elections do have some meaning as a zeitgeist meter: Republicans were rebuffed partly because so many voters are convinced the country is headed in the wrong direction. And the Democrat who won in the red state of Virginia portrayed himself as a values-driven candidate--not exactly the traditional party mold.
Which is the hidden story here: In Virginia, the race was between a new Democrat and an old Republican, and the Democrat won. True, Tim Kaine's campaign buddy was the hugely popular Mark Warner, the outgoing governor, and that counted for a lot. But Jerry Kilgore became a caricature of an old-fashioned Republican--replete with relentlessly negative ads and attacks on Kaine as an unreconstructed liberal. "It was the 2004 plan, and it didn't work," Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio told me. For his part, Kaine didn't play the old election game; he spoke about his religion and his values, even in a subtly nuanced way. As a Roman Catholic, he told voters, he personally opposed abortion and the death penalty--while promising to uphold the law on both. In his victory speech, Kaine told supporters, "We proved that faith in God is a value . . . we can all share regardless of . . . party." Bingo.
So, you say, the Democrats tried that approach last year--and failed miserably. True enough. But that was with John Kerry, who never managed to convince voters of his authenticity on much of anything, including his religious values. And, sad to say, there is the real question of whether liberal Democratic primary voters would approve of a moderate approach to anything. "Just as our base is southern, their base is northeastern," Republican Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma told me. "The strategy may create a governor, but it won't work in a presidential election." But given what's happened to the Democrats in presidential elections lately, isn't it worth trying? Consider Governor Warner: He governed from the center in a state the president won handily points last year, and he leaves office with a 75 percent approval rating. So how would he play in, say, Arkansas or West Virginia? Better than Kerry or John Edwards did.
Values. Today's political environment should have Democrats pinching themselves: A new NBC News/ Wall Street Journal poll shows real decay among voters in areas where Republicans have traditionally done very well--taxes, controlling spending, immigration, the economy. Republicans still keep their edge--albeit reduced--on managing the war on terrorism and national security. Could a strong-on-defense moderate chip away at that GOP advantage even more? Absolutely. And here's another reason the Democrats need to look at the Warner-Kaine model for 2008: Republicans still enjoy a 17-point advantage with voters when it comes to "promoting strong moral values." That's what Kaine spoke about in his campaign, and it worked.
But never underestimate Democrats' ability to lose a great hand. Despite palpable dissatisfaction with Republicans, voters haven't seen much they like from the Democrats, either. No vision. No national agenda. Democrats say they are working on a party agenda akin to the GOP's "Contract With America" that helped Republicans win control of Congress in 1994, but what's going to be in it? And who will be out there selling it?
Then again, the Democrats don't really need to rush an agenda into place because the Republicans don't have one, either. It's a sore point with congressional Republicans, who complain that the White House has never much cared about them, anyway. "They don't get it," one senior House Republican told me. "We need to hit some singles and doubles for a change." As in: After the failure of Social Security reform, worries about the war in Iraq, and questions of competence that arose after Hurricane Katrina, they would like something positive to take back home to run on for the midterm elections next year.
Hey, it worked for Tim Kaine, didn't it?
This story appears in the November 21, 2005 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.
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