Bombs and Ballots
As they vote on a new constitution, Iraqis face the consequences
The drama playing out in Iraq's political theater is tinged with irony. While the Sunnis, the former leaders of this nation, have turned into political losers, Iraq's long-oppressed Shiites and ethnic Kurds, brutalized under Saddam's rule, can now exercise political freedoms for the first time since the creation of modern-day Iraq. And some, like Salam Qaisi, a 37-year-old Shiite, see Sunni rejection as basically a refusal to accept the ascendancy of the Shiite majority. "We can't find a perfect constitution because it's not something from heaven; it's written by men," he says. "But it's the best we have so far."
Iraq's top Shiite cleric, Ali Sistani, has issued edicts telling followers that they have a religious duty to vote in elections. His office denies reports that he has directed a "Yes" vote, although most Shiites are expected to vote that way anyway in support of a constitution that enshrines their new political dominance. Conversely, the Sunni street has been bombarded with mixed messages. Al Qaeda in Iraq has called on the Arab Sunnis--who account for at least 20 percent of Iraqi's 26 million people--to boycott the referendum, saying it goes against sharia law, but armed Sunni nationalists have urged them to turn out and vote "No" to reject the constitution.
The odds are against the Sunnis blocking ratification. In the three heavily Sunni provinces, only troubled Anbar province is certain to vote strongly against the constitution. Polls show that the other two, Salahaddin and Diyala, are simply too close to call, say U.S. diplomats. In the view of Pentagon analysts, Sunnis are still likely to reject the constitution in Anbar and Salahaddin provinces, but in Diyala, they may be outvoted by local Kurds and Shiites.
Back to start? If the Sunnis are able to galvanize enough voters to defeat the constitution, then the process of choosing a new government will start over and a new constitution will have to be written. This may not be a bad thing, some analysts say, as it could give Sunnis a sense of empowerment and participation in the democratic process. On the other hand, Sunnis are a minority group in Iraq and as such are bound to play a limited role as the new opposition. "If they show up to vote against it [the constitution], it doesn't mean that they are stakeholders in the new Iraq," says David Philips, a visiting scholar at the Harvard Center for Middle East Studies and a former State Department adviser on postwar Iraq. Typical Sunnis like Shimeri, the appliance store manager, agree. "They control everything, and we citizens only have our voices and our votes, and sometimes this voice is choked by them and no one hears us," said Shimeri, referring to the Iraqi government.
The Iraqi Islamic Party and some other Sunni groups are now waging campaigns to educate people about what they feel are the constitution's strengths and weaknesses and encourage them to vote. "Most of the Sunnis are determined and motivated to participate in the elections, but we are afraid [the government] will put blocks in the way of the political process," said Adnan Dulaimi, an influential Sunni leader who heads a group of Sunnis staunchly opposed to the constitution.
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