White House Week
A Republican Nightmare: After DeLay, the Deluge
With House Majority Leader Tom DeLay stepping down because of his conspiracy indictment, worse things may follow for the GOP. "DeLay was a very good vote counter, and many people [in the majority] felt they owed him for things he'd done for them over the years," a White House adviser says. "Now it will be hard to hold the Republican caucus together." One possible result: GOP legislators will pursue their own ideas rather than march behind the leadership. (Even pre-DeLay indictment, some members facing re-election next year were distancing themselves from the White House.) An immediate concern is that some House Republicans will submit immigration legislation without White House approval and open a divisive debate among Republicans. "The White House wants to avoid a fight," says a GOP strategist. "Now that might not be possible."
It's More Like Social In security Now
More fallout for the White House and Republicans on Capitol Hill: GOP strategists, optimistic just weeks ago, now say there's zero chance that President Bush's plan to overhaul Social Security will pass this year. The legislation had been stalled, but now it looks as if it's dead through December, the soothsayers predict. Starting in January, GOP advisers say, Bush will have three to six months to win congressional approval for his "legacy" items, like Social Security and immigration reform and tax code revision. After that, Congress will be preoccupied with the November elections, and few will be in the mood for any political high-wire acts.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic Side...
It doesn't get any better than this, Democrats gloat: President Bush is on the ropes, a lobbyist scandal is sweeping the GOP, and now Tom DeLay, the party's enforcer, faces a conspiracy indictment. But hold on. Some Dems are already buzzing with worries that their divided leaders won't be able to make the most of the situation. "We're pretty surprised, frankly, that the Democrats haven't capitalized on this," said a senior GOP leadership aide. If that continues to be the case, look for a revolt in the ranks. Insiders suggest the first to be challenged might be House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco, who could be dumped in favor of House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer of Maryland.
In Iraq, the Pentagon Spins a Win-Win
What happens if Iraq's Sunni Arab minority successfully derails the proposed constitution in the October 15 referendum? Some Pentagon officials say that losing this battle could mean that they are starting to win the war. If the constitution is voted down, the argument goes, that shows that significant numbers of Sunnis decided to participate in the democratic process. Of course, rejection of the proposed constitution would move the country back to square one politically, creating a new transitional government charged with writing another new proposed constitution. Failure? Not in the least. The military says its goal for Iraq is to create a place where differences are settled through politics, not roadside bombs.
With Kenneth T. Walsh, Paul Bedard and Julian E. Barnes Kenneth T. Walsh, Paul Bedard and Julian E. Barnes Kenneth T. Walsh, Paul Bedard and Julian E. Barnes Kenneth T. Walsh, Paul Bedard and Julian E. Barnes
This story appears in the October 10, 2005 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.