National Security Watch: A squeaker predicted in Iraq
Looking ahead to the upcoming referendum on the proposed draft of Iraq's new constitution, U.S. officials are growing increasingly pessimistic about its odds of passing. The vote is supposed to take place by October 15, and it would take only a two-thirds vote against the draft in three of Iraq's 18 provinces to defeat it–and extend Iraq's political uncertainty at least another year. There are three Sunni provinces of particular concern, and one of them, the troubled Anbar province, is believed to be a lost cause. Polls show that the other two, Salahaddin and Diyala, are simply too close to call, say U.S. diplomats. Even Baghdad itself is a slight question mark. But U.S. diplomats are increasingly resigned to the possibility that the draft could fail.
The worst case, however, might be a near failure. One scenario of particular concern to diplomats has a majority in the three Sunni-dominated provinces voting against the draft but not the two-thirds majority needed in at least one. That could heighten the disenfranchisement of the Sunnis, who largely boycotted the January election.
"It will leave a lot of Sunnis with a feeling of impotence and an inability to effect change through a political mechanism," says one U.S. diplomat. U.S. officials are still struggling to figure out how to win more support for the constitution. "Unfortunately, there is no new strategy to pull out," says one official. One idea that is floating around now: delaying the referendum slightly to buy more time to persuade Sunni leaders to back the draft.
The view from the Pentagon is slightly more optimistic. There, the latest military analysis predicts that the constitution will be approved–barely. According to the Pentagon's analysis, Arab Sunnis are likely to reject the constitution in two provinces–Anbar and Salahaddin–where they have a significant majority. Arab Sunnis make up a majority in Diyala province–but just barely, not the two-thirds majority that could contribute to tanking the constitution.
So, as one Pentagon official calls it, defeat is only "a remote possibility."
advertisement
