National Security Watch: Howls of a fix in Iraq's referendum
As if Iraq's disgruntled Sunni minority didn't have enough reason to feel marginalized in the nation's emerging political arena, the latest behind-the-scenes maneuvering over the upcoming referendum on the constitution has only added new fuel to their resentment. The latest dispute comes ahead of the much anticipated vote—scheduled to be held by October 15—in which voters would ratify or reject the draft constitution produced almost exclusively by Shiite and Kurdish leaders.
Most Sunni leaders have publicly rejected the draft as divisive and looked toward the referendum as a way to flex their political muscle. After all, it would only take two thirds of the voters in three provinces to reject it in order to scuttle the draft. And there are three Sunni-dominated provinces, at least two of which seemed on track for a strong "no" vote.
But over the weekend, the Shiite-dominated parliament passed a new interpretation of the definition of the word "voter" in the election rules. By this new logic, it would take two thirds of "registered voters" to block the draft. So if only half of the registered voters in a province make it to the polls, the measure would automatically pass. This change might prove to be an insurmountable hurdle for Sunni leaders, who fear that many Sunnis might be too intimidated by insurgent threats to turn out on referendum day.
Even before this reinterpretation, U.S. officials were becoming increasingly concerned that the referendum would only deepen the alienation of the Sunnis and underline their political impotence, which in turn could provide additional fuel for the Sunni-led insurgency. Now, U.S. officials, along with United Nations election advisers, are urging the Iraqi parliament to reverse the change as a gesture to the Sunnis. For several weeks, U.S. officials had been lobbying Sunni leaders privately to break ranks and back the constitution, a move this new rule makes almost impossible.
There has also been a growing school of thought that if the Sunnis were able to block this draft, it might serve to return many to the political process and undermine the insurgents.
Of course, many Iraqis have yet to even read a complete draft of the new constitution. Some 5 million have been printed, but distribution has only just begun.
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