Congress Watch: '06 looms as Congress reconvenes
In two weeks the confirmation hearings for John Roberts to the Supreme Court are expected to be in full swing, and Congress, under more than the usual scrutiny, will be busy trying to not to look too partisan, too political, or too petty. And with the heavy workload queued up behind the confirmation, that is not a bad strategy. But the truth of the next few months is that the political realities of 2006 have already taken hold of the Capitol, significantly raising the bar for passage or even consideration of any serious legislation.
Indeed, it seems that the only factor more pressing than the battle for control of the Congress next year may be the battle for the White House in 2008.
Which is not to say there are not some people who are hopeful.
"I would expect us to have a productive fall," says one senior GOP Senate aide. "We might be around here for a while, but I think we are going to be able to build on the momentum that we have."
Republicans, who had a surprising string of triumphs before the August recess with the approval of both the energy and highway bills, say they intend to capitalize on those successes, but there is disagreement on where to go next. Social Security remains a priority item for the White House and President Bush, but it remains a political nightmare for many GOP members up for re-election next year. Senate Republicans plan to delve into reform of the estate tax and likely will push more tax breaks. But the president's sinking poll numbers are creating something of a drag on that momentum.
Stem cell research, if it comes up, threatens to create deep fissures in the GOP. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, a 2008 hopeful, has broken with the president, and Senate GOP Conference Chair Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, one of the most avid opponents of expanded research, finds himself in a tough re-election campaign against Attorney General Bob Casey Jr., a pro-life Democrat and the son of the former governor.
In the Senate in particular, 2006 and 2008 loom large as many of the key players are on the ballot or hope to be. In addition to Frist and Santorum, Democratic stalwarts Ted Kennedy and Robert Byrd are up for re-election in 2006. That likely will mean in the case of Byrd, who is facing a serious fight from GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, a little more caution, and in the case of Kennedy, who does not yet face a serious challenge, a little more cannon fire.
Democrats are hoping that the deepening concern about the war in Iraq will help them at the polls next fall, and they intend to talk about the war as much as the GOP leadership might want to do so about tax relief, immigration reform, and an asbestos liability deal. The near-miss in this month's special election in Ohio, where Democrat Paul Hackett, an antiwar Iraq veteran, almost won a House seat in the second-most Republican district in the state, has boosted Democratic hopes that Iraq could be the GOP Achilles' heel next fall.
"It's a mess," says one Democratic aide hopefully.
The one indisputable truth, however, about the coming session of Congress is that the target recess date of September 30 is a complete fiction.
Congress Watch analyzes the issues of the day on Capitol Hill and profiles members of the Senate and House.
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