National Security Watch: Is there really an Iraqi nation?
After a frantic week of negotiations, Iraqi political leaders missed a second deadline to submit a completed draft of a new constitution. A one-week extension was not quite enough to bridge the serious gaps between the Shiites and Kurds on one hand, and the Sunnis on the other. The constitutional committee did submit a working draft of the constitution, which is supported by most Kurdish and Shiite leaders, but will take another three days to try to resolve some of the outstanding disagreements.
The Sunni delegates continue to reject several provisions in the draft, most importantly those relating to federalism. Sunnis have long been skeptical about granting autonomy to Shiite regions, fearing it could lead to the breakup of Iraq. Part of the problem, say U.S. officials, is that many leaders appear to be viewing the negotiation as a zero-sum game, where concessions by one sect only help another. Indeed, these officials concede that they may have overestimated Iraqis' sense of national identity and their dedication to a unified, strong, multiethnic Iraq. Some State Department officials are reassessing the results of the election last January–where many Shiites and Kurds voted but very few Sunnis participated–and the political jockeying in the aftermath.
"We chose to interpret the results of the elections process as a profound endorsement of national identity," one State Department official said. "But in retrospect, you can interpret what happened as an attempt to maximize one's ethnic and sectarian identity."
The two delays in the constitution negotiations continue a gradual pattern among Bush administration officials of continually lowering expectations in Iraq. Officials now concede that the original goals and expectations for how Washington would be able to craft Iraq's political and economic future were overly ambitious.
"It looks like we didn't meet any of them," says a State Department official. Among the unmet goals:
- On the political side, U.S. officials had originally wanted to complete the constitution before holding any elections; demands by an influential Shiite cleric forced them to hold an early election for today's provisional government.
- Perhaps the clearest example is the electricity sector. The Bush administration was forced to scrap its plans to build two new huge power generators because the country's immediate needs were too severe and the crumbling electrical grid couldn't accommodate it. Now, engineers are struggling to boost the output of the aging system, which cannot provide enough power for Iraq's needs. This week, parts of sweltering Baghdad are seeing only two hours of electricity per days, while outages caused by sabotage have cut off most of Iraq's oil exports.
- When it comes to security, U.S. officials used to insist that there would be no place for armed militias. "That ain't functional now," says one official, noting that the Kurds and Shiites each sport their own militias that will likely continue to operate for the foreseeable future. Even the training of Iraqi security forces, arguably the administration's highest priority, has been troubled.
"The training is not going all that well," concedes one State Department official. U.S. News has learned that in several instances, sessions with U.S. trainers and Iraqi recruits in Jordan have devolved into small melees sparked by what one official calls "culture clashes."
Still, U.S. officials insist that the original August 15 deadline has served a useful purpose in forcing a debate. In each previous step forward politically, Iraqis came together only under pressure.
"In the political history of Iraq, there are a lot of diving catches," says a senior State Department official. "But political deadlines have a way of focusing them."
At the same time, more delays are unlikely to help much. "The problems aren't going to get any easier a week or a month from now," says the senior State Department official. Most officials remain hopeful that the Iraqis will eventually agree on a constitution. But there is one possible scenario that is particularly worrisome: Shiite and Kurdish delegates might push forward with the current draft over Sunni objections. That means the drama would shift to the October referendum on the constitution. The Sunnis could torpedo the whole process then if two thirds of the people in three out of Iraq's four Sunni-dominated provinces reject the draft.
For more on the U.S. politics surrounding the Iraq conflict, see the article, "The War Comes Home" in this week's issue of U.S. News.
National Security Watch keeps USNews.com readers up to date on developments in the war in Iraq as well as domestic antiterrorism news.