White House Watch: Study says voluntary retirements hurt House GOP
Voluntary retirements by Republicans seeking higher office could jeopardize the party's majority in the House of Representatives, according to a new University of Missouri study.
"While enhanced Republican fortunes in terms of incumbent re-election and open-seat contests have provided the party with a congressional majority over the past decade," says study coauthor and politics Prof. Marvin Overby, "the ongoing propensity of Republicans to retire voluntarily from the House represents something of a potential Achilles heel for the party."
The study details the success of the GOP in winning re-election and open seats but suggests that some members are frustrated that they can't penetrate the top leadership posts and are leaving to seek other offices, like senator or governor.
"This ambition is hurting Republicans," said the study.
However, since Republicans have a better percentage record at winning, the study finds that the GOP should retain a slim majority even if more voluntary retirements are announced.
A leadership aide, however, took issue with the study, instead focusing on the report's conclusion that the GOP majority has expanded even amid increasing retirements. For example, in 2004, the most Republicans ever–232–were elected. What's more, GOP strategists noted that the Republicans are also taking traditionally Democratic seats.