Thinking About How To Get Out Of Dodge
Can the U.S. start cutting its forces in Iraq in '06?
Quartermasters. One problem with pushing forward the Iraqi Army is that the transitional government has little ability to support its soldiers. The Iraqis have uniforms, boots, flak vests, helmets, and rifles, but only because the Americans supplied them. The Iraqis depend on Americans for food and complain that they lack many of the basics--like tape, batteries, or chalkboards--that are necessary for such an organization to operate.
Americans insist that the right way to handle this is to help the Iraqis develop their own logistics capabilities. The Australians have opened a logistics-training center to help the Iraqis build up a quartermaster corps. "A big focus of the coming year is to help deliver their ability to transport themselves, maintain their equipment, provide first level . . . medical care and basic supply tasks," says U.S. Lt. Gen. David Petraeus, who leads the overall training effort. But this will be a long-term project. And the reality is that if the Americans want the Iraqi Army to take responsibility for a large swath of country next year, the United States will have to provide the supplies, the transportation, and the logistics know-how.
General Sattler says that when his force returns to Iraq, its priorities will be different from what they were before. Rather than fighting insurgents, his marines' top priorities will be training the Iraqis and providing them logistics support. That, Sattler says, could mean that his marines bring fewer riflemen and more logisticians and other "combat enablers." Says Sattler: "As Iraqis come on line, our commitment should come down. We may have to increase these enablers at the same time we decrease some of the infantry."
Given that even the best military minds don't know what the state of the insurgency will be next spring, predicting the level of troops needed is still largely a guessing game. But Iraqi leaders made clear last week that securing a troop reduction is a political imperative for them. It probably won't be bad politics in America, either.
U.S. TROOP LEVELS
Since President Bush declared the "end of major combat operations" in May 2003, troop levels hit a low in 2004 and a high a year later.
DATE TROOP LEVEL
May 2003 150,000
Feb. 2004 115,000
Feb. 2005 155,000
July 2005 139,000
Sources: Defense Dept., Brookings Institution
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