Terror On The Thames
Is al Qaeda--or one of its offshoots--behind the attack on America's closest ally?
When officials in London first began evacuating the entire subway system during the Thursday morning rush hour, riders were told it was because of a massive power failure. If only it were so. The truth--four nearly simultaneous terrorist attacks on the heart of London's mass transit system--was much more devastating. The carcass of a red double-decker bus, with its roof peeled off and flung to the ground, left little doubt that that war on terrorism had landed in the middle of Britain's historic capital city. At least 50 people were killed in the explosions and more than 700 were injured. The blasts shattered what had been a giddy mood in a city still celebrating being awarded the 2012 Olympic Games. On Thursday morning, the London newspapers displayed photographs of revelers at a victory rally in Trafalgar Square; on Friday morning, the front pages showed death and destruction.
For Londoners, who for years endured terrorist attacks by the Irish Republican Army, the carnage still came as a shock. "We knew there was a threat; we've been expecting this, but now that it's happened, it's very scary," says Owain Greille, a Welsh medical student in London. "You can't help but think, it so easily could have been me." It was even more dramatic for occurring amid the heightened security surrounding the Group of Eight summit, which Britain was hosting at a Scottish resort (box, Page 30). Reaction around Europe and in the United States was swift, as city officials moved to tighten security on subway and bus systems. U.S. homeland security officials raised the terror alert level to orange, or high, for America's mass transit systems, underscoring a long-standing concern about their inherent vulnerability to terrorist attack. "We are concerned about this kind of attack being perpetrated in the United States," says a senior homeland security official (box, Page 28).
Clues in the video? The first explosions, on three different subway cars, were only 26 minutes apart. The initial investigation by British police suggested that a surprisingly small amount of explosives was used in each attack--only about 10 pounds, which could fit unobtrusively in a small backpack--but the tunnel walls served to magnify the underground blasts. The tunnel was so badly damaged at one site, near the Russell Square station, that it took rescuers days to recover bodies from the crippled subway car. Pieces of timing devices were also recovered, according to U.S. officials, leading police to conclude that the bombs had been placed on the floors of the subway cars by attackers who probably escaped.
Investigators continue to comb the scenes for any evidence and scour hours of video surveillance footage from London's ubiquitous security cameras. Officials could not immediately identify who was responsible for the attack, but the signature traits--near-simultaneous attacks on symbolic targets calculated to cause maximum casualties--seem familiar. "The attack methodology is consistent with what we know al Qaeda has planned for in the past," says a senior U.S. intelligence official. "There is also intelligence indicating al Qaeda has been trying to carry out attacks in Europe and the homeland just like this one." Shortly after the attack, a previously unknown group calling itself the "Secret Organization of al Qaeda in Europe" claimed responsibility, linking the attack to military actions in Iraq and Afghanistan and threatening other U.S. allies like Denmark and Italy. Officials could not validate the claim, but experts said the language and tone were similar to those of al Qaeda's past communications.
"Londonistan." Initial speculation by counterterrorism officials, as well as outside experts, was that this attack was more likely carried out by a small group inspired, but not necessarily directed, by al Qaeda. London, with its large Muslim immigrant population, has long been considered a potential breeding ground for Islamic extremist groups. The city had been dubbed "Londonistan" by terrorism experts. "British officials have always been upfront that it was a question of when, not if," says Magnus Ranstorp, a terrorism expert at Scotland's St. Andrews University. Indeed, security officials have foiled several previous plots in London and elsewhere in Europe, raising concern about the Continent's vulnerability. Officials in London have made a series of recent arrests of suspected militants, including breaking up some logistical cells, but more recently have been searching for about 70 British nationals suspected of terrorist ties who have disappeared in recent months. "You needn't necessarily import people," says one U.S. intelligence official.
The blasts were also eerily similar to the March 2004 attack on Madrid's central train station, where an ad hoc group of radicals and discontented Muslim immigrants cobbled together a deadly plot in less than two months with little or no central direction from top al Qaeda leaders. That attack killed 191 people, making the Madrid operation something of a model operation for al Qaeda leaders. "We have a number of intelligence reports that have pointed to al Qaeda's interest in having repeat attacks to what happened in Madrid," says a senior U.S. intelligence official.
Modus operandi. Counterterrorism officials say al Qaeda has transformed from a somewhat hierarchical organization into more of a franchise venture, where local commanders implement their own operations with at most loose strategic guidance from a central command structure. "These franchises have grown up not to replace al Qaeda but to actually enhance the threat that al Qaeda once posed," says Rep. Jane Harman, the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee. Al Qaeda leaders, most notably the group's military commander Saif al-Adel, have said that attacks should not be random but be designed to achieve clear political or strategic goals. "Unfortunately, this attack may be a signal of the success of the branding of al Qaeda's ideology and modus operandi," says Christopher Blanchard, a terrorism expert at the Congressional Research Service who wrote about al-Adel's most recent treatise.
Experts warn that more London- and Madrid-style attacks are a near certainty. "This is something we're going to see more and more often--softer targets, both because they're less protected and operations that require less skill--and a combination of experienced jihadists and newly radicalized fellow travelers put in touch with each other through a network of radical elements, especially preachers," says Matthew Levitt, a former FBI terrorism analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "Europe is a preferred operational environment for al Qaeda right now because there is a radical undercurrent and a radicalized population in Europe that is available for their use. There are many communities in which radicals can hide in the open."
U.S. intelligence officials say that they and their allies have been able to erode significant parts of al Qaeda's central leadership, but this has created a whole new set of challenges with a more dispersed organization. "Those people don't all look the same, don't all work for the same people, don't all speak the same language; they have extraordinarily high tradecraft, and they're willing to die for their beliefs," says Harman, whose son was in London during the bombings. "That's as close to a perfect storm as you can get."
Plot possibilities. Officials are also not ruling out involvement by Abu Musab Zarqawi, the Jordanian militant tied to al Qaeda who has been blamed for some of the worst suicide attacks in Iraq. "He has pursued efforts to expand his reach outside the Iraq theater, to include the European theater," says a senior U.S. intelligence official, who adds there is no specific information yet tying him to the operation.
Other experts, however, dispute the assessment that al Qaeda cannot orchestrate attacks as effectively these days. "In a general sense, I think we vastly overestimate the damage we have done to al Qaeda," says Michael Scheuer, a former CIA terrorism analyst who once ran Langley's Osama bin Laden unit. "We have no way of measuring damage." Scheuer noted that the G-8 summit was scheduled many years in advance, meaning that a plot could have been in the works for quite some time.
For its part, London seemed determined to demonstrate that it could bounce back quickly. The first hours of the attack were anxious ones for many worried about friends and family, especially after London's mobile phone network shut down. But the emergency response was crisp and professional, with several offices turned into field hospitals. The cafes and pubs were full, even near the bomb-scarred Edgware Road subway station. Buses and trains were running again later the same evening, while many other Londoners made long treks home on foot. The next morning, commuters once again boarded trains and buses, although jitters over unattended bags prompted at least one temporary closure. "If we can fight and win two wars, I don't think we have to worry about these people," says Rob Cox, a young TV producer, referring to the British spirit during German air raids on London in the Second World War.
Keith Diggle heard the bus blast from his office. "We heard this 'crump,' " he says. But he said Londoners will not be frightened by the terrorists. "We went through this before with the IRA. We know in our bones that you don't change your behavior; you just get on with it," says Diggle, who runs a London firm that publishes books and magazines about classical music. "The difference is, as dastardly as the IRA was, you had some hope of negotiations. With these guys, you don't negotiate."
Carnage in London
Here is how last week's terrorist attacks unfolded:
1 8:51 a.m.
Seven killed in the first blast at the height of rush hour.
2 8:56 a.m.
Blast deep underground killed more than 21 people. Safety fears slowed the recovery of additional bodies.
3 9:17 a.m.
Seven died in blast involving two to three trains.
4 9:47 a.m.
Blast on a double-decker bus in Tavistock Square killed 13.
[key]
Bus station
Bombing
Tube station and line
MILE 0 1
[sites of interest]
Hyde Park
Tavistock Square
British Museum
10 Downing Street
Houses of Parliament
River Thames
Westminster Abbey
Buckingham Palace
[stations]
PICCADILLY CIRCUS
ALDGATE
RUSSELL SQUARE
LIVERPOOL STREET
KING'S CROSS
EDGWARE ROAD
VICTORIA
[inset]
Extent of the Underground System
London's Tube is the oldest subway in the world. Three million riders move across 253 miles of track through 275 stations a day.
[inset labels]
Area of detail
River Thames
0,5 MILES
Map by Stephen Rountree-- USN&WR
With Thomas K. Grose and Gillian Sandford
This story appears in the July 18, 2005 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.