World Watch: Goals uncertain for new Iran leader
Before his election on June 24, few in the West had heard of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the man who shocked many in and outside of Iran by winning the presidency of the Islamic republic. And so it's not surprising that Iran watchers are still puzzling over why the conservative populist defeated a longtime fixture of the Iranian scene, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani—and what it will mean for the West. Ahmadinejad will take office in August, replacing a moderate reformist, though he will still govern under the shadow of Iran's supreme religious leader.
But his election may nonetheless be critical to the United States. With a burgeoning nuclear program held in check only by uncertain negotiations with the European Union, Ahmadinejad's views are likely to help guide Iran in its choice to go for nuclear weapons or just for nuclear power plants. So far, he has been vague—even contradictory—on the subject, calling on Iran to resume work on enriching uranium (barred under the tentative arrangement with the Europeans) while also favoring the same negotiations. Bush administration officials, meanwhile, are monitoring the conduct of Iranian representatives and intelligence agents in Iraq for signs that Tehran wants to help create a quagmire of opposition to the U.S. presence in Iraq. Also unclear is to what degree Ahmadinejad will be able to revive popular support for the conservative social values—espoused by some of the senior ruling clerics—that dominated the early years of the Islamic Republic after the 1978 revolution. As the onetime mayor of Tehran, Iran's capital city, he promoted conservative social changes but "he actually retreated" when he met resistance, says Ray Takeyh, a leading Iran analyst with the Council on Foreign Relations. Takeyh spoke this week at an Iran forum jointly sponsored by the Nixon Center, a Washington think tank, and the National Interest, a policy magazine: "Desperate Times, Half Measures." Ahmadinejad's reputation for conservatism (he is close to the powerful Revolutionary Guards) led supporters of Rafsanjani to predict a wave of "Islamo-fascism" if the ex-mayor were elected, says Geoffrey Kemp, a Middle East expert at the Nixon Center.
In retrospect, Ahmadinejad's popularity—he outpolled Rafsanjani by 7 million votes—reflects public anger at corruption and broken promises of more jobs and prosperity. "We underestimated the degree to which they [Iranians] were angered by Rafsanjani's corruption," says Takeyh. He says there has been "a shift in Iranian public attitudes" from lofty, revolutionary goals to pragmatically getting things done—a quality that worked to Ahmadinejad's advantage. "It's a vote for efficiency as opposed to idealism." But Ahmadinejad's antiestablishment appeal will inevitably clash with segments of the clerical elite—making the results maddeningly unpredictable for the West. Robert McFarlane, a national security adviser under President Reagan, called Iran one of the "most intractable" foreign policy issues of our time. It's likely to remain so through the country's next presidency.
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