White House Watch: Democrats see opportunity in Iraq polling
Pollsters of both major parties are sensing an important change in public attitudes toward the Iraq war. Recent opinion surveys suggest that a substantial majority of voters have turned against the war, repulsed by the level of violence and the rising number of casualties among U.S. troops [Iraq: So far, somebody else's problem (6/27/05)].
"It's a bad situation, and it's getting worse," says a senior Democratic strategist. White House officials, of course, argue that real progress is being made in Iraq but the news media aren't giving it enough coverage. In an effort to shore up support, President Bush plans to make the case more vigorously that his Iraq policy is working and the country needs to be steadfast.
Yet if the violence continues or escalates through next year and the situation doesn't appear to be getting better, "the outcry will be very great," says Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg. Privately, some Republican strategists agree. They see growing potential for a protest vote that could endanger the GOP majorities in Congress. "It bears watching," admits a White House adviser.
For their part, Democrats see an opportunity to nationalize the 2006 midterm election by making it, at least in part, a referendum on Iraq policy. Greenberg says that, of all the issues facing President Bush, "Iraq is the most dangerous but the one he has the most control over." If the U.S. occupation gets too unpopular, Bush could begin pulling out U.S. troops and accelerate the turnover of security to Iraqi forces. What worries GOP analysts is that voters in rural areas, who tend to be conservative but whose families have sent a large share of soldiers into the conflict, are particularly discontented with Bush's war policy. This could hurt Republican candidates for the Senate next year in rural states.
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