World Watch: G-8 to focus on Africa
Since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the summit of the Group of 8 (G-8)—an annual ritual founded for the purpose of wrestling with issues like trade, aid, currencies, and economic growth—has been dominated by President Bush's focus on security. The war on terrorism, the war in Iraq and its aftermath, and nonproliferation have all upstaged economics in what is usually the foremost gathering of world leaders each year.
But this year's meeting in Scotland looks to be different. The July 6-8 summit at the mountain resort of Gleneagles is expected to concentrate on debt relief and aid to Africa, the region deemed most vulnerable to catastrophic failure in economics and public health. Last week, the Bush administration signed on to a G-8 plan to cancel $40 billion of the debt owed by 18 developing countries that show a commitment to economic reform. Most are in Africa, and analysts see the move as a historic first step in cutting a crippling $210 billion mountain of debt towering over the continent.
That move followed a meeting on June 7 between Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair at the White House. Blair, who remains under fire for backing Bush on Iraq and other matters, has been criticized for getting little in return. For Bush, Blair has been a stalwart supporter and, at times, the point man in presenting U.S.-British views of security matters to the world. So, as Blair made African debt relief and aid a centerpiece of bilateral talks in recent weeks, Bush—apparently—listened.
The United States' embrace of Blair's priorities reflects a larger, "discernible turn" by Washington to seek Europe's help on a variety of issues during the president's second term, says Charles Kupchan, a former National Security Council aide under President Clinton and now director of Europe studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He argues that administration hardliners—though still powerful—have lost ground to "centrist Republican internationalists." Hence the United States' acceptance of parts of Blair's softer agenda—though Bush has already shown a willingness to spend more heavily on foreign aid than his predecessors through a new assistance program, the Millennium Challenge Account. Africa will also feature prominently at Gleneagles as the G-8 considers ways to bolster efforts to reduce the epidemic of HIV/AIDS and to bolster the African-led peacekeeping effort in the Darfur region of Sudan.
But conventional economic issues will also figure prominently, and the trends there are not good. Demand for goods and services is weakening in Europe, oil prices remain high, and global trade talks associated with the World Trade Organization are vulnerable to failure. Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit is soaring. With antiglobalization sentiments still strong, expect large protests in the Scottish capital of Edinburgh—and little or no gratitude for increased U.S. help to the developing world. Says Gene Sperling, another Council on Foreign Relations analyst and the former head of the National Economic Council, "The U.S. will probably be known more for its shortcomings than any improvements."