The Revolution Is On Hold, OK?
The U.S. calls Belarus 'an outpost of tyranny,' but many of its citizens are in no rush for democracy
What will bring change to Belarus is evolution of civil society and grass-roots democracy, say western diplomats. While Washington uses highly charged language to describe the current political scene--words like tyranny, dictatorship, and outrage--the amount of overt U.S. government spending for democracy-building projects in Belarus is relatively modest, roughly $7 million a year. This money goes to groups like the International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, which have been banned from Belarus by Lukashenko and so conduct operations from neighboring countries. Rather than give money directly to the opposition, which has been accused of squandering U.S. aid, these groups use the funding for a range of activities from teaching aspiring politicians how to run effective campaigns to paying for their gas when they drive out to the villages to spread their message.
For Belarus's western neighbors, the change can't come fast enough. The Baltic nations--Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, which joined the European Union last May--boast some of the fastest-growing economies in the world and need Belarus for both its disposable income and its cheap labor force. "It is in our national interest to have a neighbor which is democratic," says the Lithuanian ambassador to Washington, Vygaudas Usackas. "It is an immediate market of 10 million consumers."
To the east of Belarus lies Russia, where President Vladimir Putin viewed the democratic uprisings in Georgia and Ukraine as Kremlin foreign-policy failures. So far, he has stood by Lukashenko--with Belarus providing a buffer between Russia and the NATO alliance.
Belarus lacks the geopolitical weight to stand on its own and will have to latch on to the West or to the East. A recent poll conducted by the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies, a group that runs its western-funded operation from a private apartment, found that more people wanted to integrate into Russia than the European Union, but almost a quarter of those polled said they would like to go for both.
In one direction, there is the glittery promise of Europe; in the other, there are the bonds of culture and history--and the tug of economic dependence on Russia as a supplier of cheap gas and a major export market for Belarussian goods. Revolution isn't in the wind, but the "last dictator in Europe" must wonder if his days are numbered.
[Map of Belarus]
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Minsk
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Kiev
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Russia
Lithuania
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Belarus
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