Ready or Not
With the first elections behind them, the real test for Iraqis now will be taking responsibility for security
BAGHDAD--The euphoria over the elections, in so many different corners of Iraq, was almost palpable. Braced for a national bloodbath at the ballot boxes, many Iraqis seem to have surprised even themselves, temporizing over whether to defy the threats of insurgents, then deciding that the historic opportunity to begin to shape their own fate after so many years of tyranny and terrorism was simply one they could not pass up.
Heartening as it was--and when was the last time anyone saw Iraqis dancing with American GIs?--the generals directing the American-led effort in Iraq are under few illusions about the difficulty of the challenges that lie ahead. Even before Iraqis justly applauded themselves for having defied the cynics and naysayers with last week's vote, the American commanders had been deeply engaged in a thorough re-examination of their Iraq strategy. In interviews with senior military officials and a retired general dispatched by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to advise them, U.S. News learned details of the emerging plan. The generals have decided to make a fundamental shift from combat operations to a more widespread and aggressive advisory effort to try to bring the Iraqi forces up to speed quickly so they take more responsibility for the insurgent-led violence that continues to convulse much of the country. Starting this week, as many as 4,000 soldiers will be cut away from their units and assigned to Iraqi divisions, battalions, and companies as military advisory teams, or MAT s. Other troops rotating into Iraq over the next few weeks and months will be assigned as advisers from the outset. In addition, 10-man police advisory teams, or PAT s, will be assigned to work with the troubled Iraqi police force in four cities in a pilot project. The plan, the largest such effort since Vietnam, envisions up to 70 U.S. advisers per battalion. Their role will be twofold: to train the Iraqis and to provide a link for U.S. airstrikes, medical evacuation, and logistical support.
Relearning lessons. The change in course is designed to put the Iraqis out front and to signal loud and clear that the United States wants to take a back seat to the new government. This was what the U.S.-led coalition hoped to do last summer after the occupation authority was dissolved and sovereignty was restored. But the fledgling Iraqi security forces were unable to stand up to the onslaught of violence that has tested even the most well-trained U.S. forces there. Whether this new attempt will fare any better depends on many factors, starting with how much progress the U.S. advisers can make with their Iraqi colleagues and how quickly. If the effort does succeed, the hope is that U.S. troop levels can be reduced substantially by this time next year.
The U.S. military is relearning, sometimes painfully, many of the lessons of counterinsurgency that it hoped to forget after Vietnam. Among them, based on detailed conversations with key commanders, three stand out. The first is that perceptions matter: These wars are a contest of wills played out in the arena of public opinion. Second is that everything is connected: perceptions, security, politics, economics--right down to the level of hamlets and tribes. Third is that you can kill insurgents until the cows come home and still lose the war.
advertisement
