On the road to a new democracy?
For a day, hope overcame fear. Now, Iraqis ponder the consequences of their votes
BAGHDAD--With most of Iraq under a security lockdown for last week's landmark election, Radio Dijla, the capital's popular all-talk station, was one of the few safe havens where Iraqis could hear and join a vigorous, public debate. Voters traded stirring tales of bravery, and many spoke longingly of a peaceful future. One Iraqi told the show's host that he was so inspired by the discourse that he put his fear of attacks aside to go to the polls. "When we heard this large crowd of people calling you and [sounding] very happy, I decided to go, and take my family, and through your radio, I call on all the hesitant people like me: Go and vote."
For one day at least, many Iraqis caught a glimpse of a more hopeful future for their beleaguered nation, which took a small, but crucial, step toward an elected government by holding a nationwide election for a 275-person transitional national assembly. Hesitatingly at first, then in larger numbers after the smoke of early-morning attacks subsided, Iraqis hit the emptied streets to cast their ballots in Iraq's first real parliamentary election in 50 years. At a voting station in the largely Shiite Baghdad neighborhood of Jadriya, one woman ululated in joy, or perhaps as a triumphant war cry. Another housewife, a Sunni, was defiant: "I left my house because I wanted to breathe the air of freedom for the first time in a lot of years."
Those who voted talked about reclaiming some measure of Iraqi pride and, perhaps more important, about taking a brave stand against the murderous insurgency. Indeed, despite scattered attacks and retribution threats against voters, whose fingers were coated in indelible purple ink to show they had voted, Iraqis appeared to have turned out in somewhat larger-than-expected numbers. "It is a big message to the insurgents that people wanted to go forward with the political process," says Saad Abdul Razak, a secular Sunni candidate, who two weeks prior to the elections was in the camp of those calling for postponement.
With the laborious vote counting process underway, the consequences of a divisive election started to emerge. While Shiites exulted in the strength of their newfound suffrage, some Kurds renewed calls for independence for the predominantly Kurdish areas of northern Iraq. More worrying, much of the Sunni minority, at the zenith of power under Saddam Hussein's oppressive rule, sat out election day--whether in protest, because of indecision, or simply because the polling centers in their restive neighborhoods were closed. This threatens to leave them on the sidelines of Iraq's next government and the process of writing a new constitution, both of which could only serve to increase Sunni alienation.
Voices. Iraq's neighbors cautiously blessed the election, with a few monarchs and autocrats going so far as to tout the virtues of a free and fair democratic process on Arab satellite TV. Most were quick to warn that a lot remains to be seen before declaring this experiment a success, specifically how Sunnis in Iraq will be treated by the new Shiite-dominated parliament. "We hope the government does not ignore those who didn't vote but supports them," says Jordan's foreign minister, Hani Mulki, referring to the Sunnis. "Their voice must be heard," treating them as if they are a "shadow Congress."
The question of Sunni participation remains unanswered. Shiite leaders were quick to make appropriately conciliatory noises about courting the disgruntled Sunni community, but their intention to put a more strongly Shiite religious stamp on the next government lurked just below the surface. "The prime minister is not going to represent the sect he comes from--he's going to represent Iraq," says current Vice President Ibrahim Jafari, a leading Shiite candidate to become prime minister. "We must think about which Shiite prime minister will be accepted by the Sunni community."
Jafari ran as part of a slate, known popularly as number 169, that included the nation's two most influential Shiite parties and was blessed by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the most influential Shiite cleric in Iraq. Early returns showed his religious slate with a commanding lead, and in an interview after the election, Jafari carefully noted that because of their victorious turnout, they should claim the seat of power: "The Iraqi people must feel that we will not put aside whom they elected. The Iraqi people overcame the threat and voted, and we must tell them, 'You will not be neglected.' "
The real cracks could emerge when the new assembly meets to appoint a new government--consisting of a president and two deputies and a prime minister--in what will be a convoluted backroom process of wheeling and dealing to divvy up the spots between the winning slates of candidates. Shiite politicians from the two main religious parties will work to agree on who among them will take the influential prime minister job. If they fail, Iyad Allawi, the tough-guy interim prime minister and American favorite, might retain the post. The presidency, now in Sunni hands, could well go to the Kurds, leaving Sunnis angling for a fourth spot, the speaker of the assembly, a somewhat symbolic consolation prize being sold as offering Sunnis a much-needed "bully pulpit."
Bumpy ride. The assembly's most difficult task, however, will be to draft a new permanent constitution. This, too, will be a bruising process, in which Iraqis will address all the toughest issues they so far have sidestepped, such as the degree of Kurdish autonomy. The constitution, due in mid-August, will be an unprecedented test of Iraqi politicians' ability to compromise, in effect, to knit together rival Shiites and Sunnis, Arabs and Kurds. "If it's successful, nobody will get what they want. The only successful constitution is one in which everybody gets a little bit less than their maximum and decides it's good enough," says a senior U.S. Embassy official. "This is the core issue of whether the Iraqis can live with each other. I expect this next year to be a very bumpy ride with lots of crises."
For its part, the U.S. government is moving quietly to set out political markers. President Bush made clear in his State of the Union address that he will not commit to a withdrawal timetable for American troops. Officials said troops would leave if told to do so by a new Iraqi government, but that was largely a feint since the administration is confident that leaders will need security help from American forces. And U.S. officials in Baghdad said they are prepared to play diplomatic hardball--including the threat to withhold billions in promised reconstruction aid--to ensure that Iraq's political newbies stick to the game plan for a democratic, pluralistic, federalist, and unified state. "The Iraqis are free to choose whatever vision of Iraq they want. That's entirely up to them," says a diplomat in Baghdad. "It's entirely up to us, the United States, who we choose to support. We can use these funds elsewhere."
One challenge will be to Iraq's history of secular government. Shiite party leaders insist that they have a strong and unified vision of how they want the constitution to be written, and it follows two basic principles: to be consistent with Islamic law, known as sharia, and to escape the constraints of Iraq's transitional law, largely drafted by U.S. officials. "Sistani's main role now is to make sure the constitution does not contradict the sharia, " said a top Shiite politician.
Key precedent. This transitional period could prove to be one of the last chances to cement the secular nature of Iraq's new government. Even the respected Sistani has so far said that clerics should not run Iraq directly. But many in the Arab world fear that over time, Iran's influence could push Iraq's Shiite clerics to demand a direct role in government, especially if more moderate leaders like Sistani are assassinated or pushed aside. If Iraq manages to ratify a secular constitution on schedule by the end of 2005, it could create a key precedent. "It is more important what we [everyone] will be doing in the next nine to 10 months than what the Americans did for the past two years," says Mulki.
Progress on any of these issues will still depend, in large part, on the security situation. The dominant Shiite slate 169 campaigned on security, while Allawi still managed to attract some support because of the reputation he cultivated as a strongman. Several battles now loom over how to make a real dent in the insurgency. In particular, some Shiite politicians are pushing to integrate the controversial Shiite militias into the Iraqi Army and police. "We think the security forces have been infiltrated as a result of [the interim government's] policies, and this is a disaster," says Saad Jawad Qindeel, an official with the popular Supreme Council for the Islamic Republic in Iraq, the Shiite party topping list 169. "We are going to support merging the militia into the government." For the U.S. military, which had developed a comfortable working relationship with Allawi, the new government could prove much more difficult to work with.
Of course, it is far from clear that even the Iraqis who participated will embrace the final results. The election system is so complicated and opaque, and the parties all have such inflated expectations, that many Iraqis will be suspicious of some kind of gerrymandering when the assembly is announced, no matter what the final result is. Still, many Iraqis and U.S. officials are hoping that the new government will have enough legitimacy to finally shift the momentum in Iraq. "We will bring back dignity to Iraq and tell the rest of the Arab countries that we are free to decide our future," says Saed Abdul Kareem Nadim, an engineer and a Shiite. "Maybe we are the only Arab country that can!" Unless the insurgents decide it for them.
POST-ELECTION TIMELINE
Mid-February-early March: The new 275-member transitional national assembly takes office. The assembly elects a president and two deputies, who then must agree on a prime minister (subject to assembly approval) and a nine-member supreme court. The prime minister chooses his council of ministers, subject to assembly approval.
By August 15: The assembly completes drafting a constitution.
By October 15: Iraqi public referendum on constitution
By December 15: If the constitution is approved, Iraqis vote for a new national government to take office December 31. If the assembly fails to draft a constitution or voters reject it, a new transitional national assembly will be elected and have one year to redraft the constitution.
With Amer Saleh
This story appears in the February 14, 2005 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.