Democracy under the gun
Preparing to vote, Iraqis wonder if elections will lead to peace or more chaos
BAQUBAH--On the eve of Iraq's first democratic election, a local television station in this restive city north of Baghdad decided to host a candidates' debate. A handful of prospective politicians were invited to discuss the core issues--deteriorating security, U.S. troops on Iraqi soil, the prospect of democracy in a nation traumatized by war--and the scene was set with hot, white lights and a couple of TV cameras in front of a wall garishly plastered with stickers in Arabic that proclaim, "Everyone [heart] Iraq."
But much like the elections themselves, scheduled for January 30, the exercise was hardly textbook democracy. Most candidates, too afraid to reveal their names and faces on television, didn't show up. Nor did the group of students invited to question them. Still, the show would go on--albeit Iraqi style. Provincial governor Abdullah Rashid al-Jabouri, whose name will appear on local ballots on a candidate list called "Diyala's Elite," sat down for the cameras across from a local representative of the Communist Party. The TV screen flickered with a gory montage of charred bodies, explosions, and U.S. troops stepping over bloodied, dead men, and then it was time to talk politics. "To boycott elections does not serve our people!" Akram Khadouri, the Communist, said into the camera, in hopes of reaching a fearful and disenchanted public who may stay home on election day. "If we all stand together, we can overcome a lot of difficulties."
Nameless and faceless. There's a lot to overcome. More than eight electoral workers have been killed and hundreds threatened with death, including the top electoral official in Mosul, who resigned after his family was threatened. Political assassinations and the threat of car bombs at public gatherings have largely precluded holding political rallies. And unlike most any other election, many of the candidates vying for the 275 seats in the national assembly--to be tasked with forming the transitional government and writing a constitution--are nameless and faceless to the public who will vote for ad hoc slates cobbled together by political, tribal, and religious leaders.
In some parts of the country, namely the Shiite-dominated southeast and the Kurdish northern region, the conditions are more conducive to elections. But the violence in four largely Sunni Arab provinces is likely to keep a significant number of Iraqis from voting. "The issue is not whether or not I want to vote, but whether the circumstances for that are healthy," said Ziad al-Rawi, 54, a retired Army general. "The elections are not legitimate. How can they happen when cities are bombed, women and sheiks are killed?"
Pulling it off, and making it look right, will be a test not only for U.S. troops but especially for the fledgling Iraqi military, which has been targeted by the insurgency and, as a result, is riddled with desertions. The interim Iraqi government has declared a three-day national holiday around election day, and the roads will be shut down to keep would-be suicide bombers at bay. U.S. troops will provide an outer cordon of security, but it will be up to Iraqis to provide security at the polls. "There will not be an American soldier in a helmet standing there as Iraqis drop the ballot into the boxes," said a western diplomat in Baghdad.
A lot is riding--both here and in Washington--on how the election plays out. A credible vote would be a much needed accomplishment for President Bush, who stressed spreading freedom in an inaugural address that omitted specific mention of Iraq. Still, Bush administration officials now recognize that even a successful election would not immediately quell the persistent insurgency. The most they now hope for is a shift in momentum that would allow for an exit strategy and a chance to begin withdrawing some of the 150,000 U.S. troops. "[Elections do] not mean we're getting out. This is not a rapid force exit strategy," said a U.S. Embassy official. "You can't just pull out and leave without forces that can fill the gap."
To some degree, just holding an election may be seen as an achievement. "The fact that this is a transition from an appointed to an elected government--that's the significance," U.S. Ambassador John Negroponte told reporters on January 19. "For the Iraqis to have ownership of their own political process is also an extremely important thing."
When Iraqis go to the polls, they will vote to disperse that ownership among the variety of groups that have emerged on the political playing field--groups that define themselves more along ethnic, religious, and tribal lines than by political or policy platforms. The Shiite and Kurdish camps, whose leaders spent years in exile organizing and plotting to stake their claims, are better prepared to mobilize voters than the Sunni minority, which lacks viable leadership and whose constituency is largely based in the four most violent provinces of Iraq.
One favorable sign is that the Shiites can't wait to vote. After decades of oppression by Saddam Hussein's ruling Sunni minority, Shiite politicians are eager to move forward with the support of an enthusiastic constituency. Listen to the Shiite street and you hear the budding promise of democracy: "Participate in the elections and then afterwards discuss the problems on the table inside the national assembly. There is no need for bloodshed and the use of weapons," says Abdul Amir Jassem, a fast-talking medical student.
For the Sunnis, the political future is less certain. Between the threat of election-day violence and the fear of retaliation by neighbors after the vote, it is likely that on election day many Sunnis will simply stay home. "The Sunni Arab voters want to go to the polls [but] they are being intimidated by people who do not believe in the elections," says Sharif Ali bin Hussein, leader of the Constitutional Monarchy party and descendent of Iraq's deposed monarch. The result, Hussein says, is that "the government will have less of a mandate. If the Sunni provinces won't vote for the national assembly, [assembly members] will have to bend over backwards to include Sunnis in the government."
Built into the transitional administrative law is a clause that could enable a group like the Sunnis to quash a new Iraqi constitution: Only two thirds of the people in as few as three provinces would have to vote no in a referendum to be held by October 15. If any one group dominates the parliament, it will have to work hard to build a public consensus--ostensibly, a fail-safe provision to ensure that no one is left out of the political process.
But the reality of Sunni inclusion might be limited to bringing in technocrats and intellectuals who would help write the constitution. Assuming Shiites sweep a majority of support, followed by a solid, if smaller, Kurdish block, it will be difficult to convince the Sunni street that their voices will be part of the national dialogue. Rather than let up, the shadowy insurgency, which has found sympathy and tacit support in Sunni communities, may try to harness the popular feeling of alienation. Says candidate Saad Abdulrazzak, a secular Sunni candidate who has aligned himself with onetime Washington favorite Adnan Pachachi: "If Sunnis are not represented in the next election, it will be a crack in Iraqi society, which will be very difficult to repair."
Already, signs of civil strife and sectarian provocation are emerging. The U.S.-led offensive on the insurgent stronghold of Fallujah in November, and the subsequent military operation in the city of Mosul, caused a ripple effect in Sunni communities. The Islamic Party denounced the legitimacy of the elections and declared a boycott, and the insurgency responded with a spike in politically motivated violence.
Then came suicide bombs on the steps of Shiite mosques and assassinations of Shiite politicians and sheiks. Influential Shiite leaders were quick to respond, advocating ballots over bullets, lest anything jeopardize their electoral ascendancy. Some imams went so far as to use their pulpits to warn potential voters that if they did not vote for the Shiite-dominated candidates' list 169, which boasts the unofficial blessing of the Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, they would have to answer to God. "The Shia are restraining themselves. They are holding their breath and not retaliating," says Adnan Ali, senior member of the Shiite-dominated Dawa party.
Election day. Making sure Iraqis would have a place to cast their ballots in a free and a fair environment has been a monumental challenge for the Iraqi Independent Electoral Commission, a government agency formed under the auspices of the United Nations. On election day, more than 5,000 polling centers throughout Iraq will be open until 5 p.m. to the estimated 14 million eligible voters. The threat of violence has curtailed the number of polling centers envisioned in places such as Mosul, where only 40 voting centers will be open in a city of 2 million people. Security has also kept away most international observers. Because of overseas ballots and security concerns, results are not expected until mid-February. "In a transitional election, by definition, the environment is not very conducive to credible elections," said Carlos Valenzuela, the U.N. technical adviser to the electoral commission." It's amazing that it is coming together as it is."
Iraqis will face a national ballot with 111 political entities--independent candidates and lists formed by political parties--and seats in the national assembly will be awarded proportionately. In practice, most Iraqis will have no clear idea of which individuals they are voting for. Moqtada al-Sadr, the rebel street cleric, is rumored to hold a stake in the Sistani list, as is Ahmad Chalabi, a controversial figure who repositioned himself as pro-Shiite, anti-Baathist, and anti-American after falling out of favor in Washington.
Iraqi interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi heads his own list and is waging a fierce campaign on satellite television, through slick, western-style advertisements and a miniseries, which characterizes him as a pro-democracy tough who once beat off ax-wielding assassins. More obscure groups, such as Chaldean and Assyrian minorities, are also making their voices heard, and a few candidates are vying for a seat by relying on established institutions, like the monarchy and the Communist Party, that may draw voters across ethnic and sectarian lines.
In such an atmosphere, it seems that democracy is there for the taking, not just for Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds but also for Communists and monarchists. Says the self-proclaimed heir to the Iraqi throne, Sharif Ali bin Hussein, "The message should not be, 'You should vote.' The message should be, 'Your vote will count.' "
Mixed signals
Iraq still suffers from electricity shortages, but the country's overall economy (gross domestic product) has grown largely owing to rising oil revenues. Far more people have access to telephones.
Average hours per day of electricity
24-hour clock
[Iraq map labels]
Anbar 17 hours
An Najaf 6 hours
Muthanna 8 hours
Basra 9 hours
Nasiriya 12 hours
Misan 8 hours
Qadisiyah 5 hours
Wasit 6 hours
Babil 6 hours
Karbala 6 hours
Baghdad 9 hours
Diyala 12 hours
Salah Ad Din 9 hours
Tamin 9 hours
Sulaymaniyah 13 hours
Erbil 16 hours
Dahuk 14 hours
Ninawa 8 hours
Telephone subscribers
[Chart data]
Prewar level 833,000
December 2003 600,000
December 2004 2,152,000
GDP in billions of dollars
[Chart data]
'00 $31.8
'01
'02
'03 War starts $12.1 (estimate)
'04 $21.1 (projection)
Sources: U.S. State Department, World Bank, Brookings Institution
Rod Little-- USN&WR
With Kevin Whitelaw
This story appears in the January 31, 2005 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.