Democracy under the gun
Preparing to vote, Iraqis wonder if elections will lead to peace or more chaos
But the reality of Sunni inclusion might be limited to bringing in technocrats and intellectuals who would help write the constitution. Assuming Shiites sweep a majority of support, followed by a solid, if smaller, Kurdish block, it will be difficult to convince the Sunni street that their voices will be part of the national dialogue. Rather than let up, the shadowy insurgency, which has found sympathy and tacit support in Sunni communities, may try to harness the popular feeling of alienation. Says candidate Saad Abdulrazzak, a secular Sunni candidate who has aligned himself with onetime Washington favorite Adnan Pachachi: "If Sunnis are not represented in the next election, it will be a crack in Iraqi society, which will be very difficult to repair."
Already, signs of civil strife and sectarian provocation are emerging. The U.S.-led offensive on the insurgent stronghold of Fallujah in November, and the subsequent military operation in the city of Mosul, caused a ripple effect in Sunni communities. The Islamic Party denounced the legitimacy of the elections and declared a boycott, and the insurgency responded with a spike in politically motivated violence.
Then came suicide bombs on the steps of Shiite mosques and assassinations of Shiite politicians and sheiks. Influential Shiite leaders were quick to respond, advocating ballots over bullets, lest anything jeopardize their electoral ascendancy. Some imams went so far as to use their pulpits to warn potential voters that if they did not vote for the Shiite-dominated candidates' list 169, which boasts the unofficial blessing of the Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, they would have to answer to God. "The Shia are restraining themselves. They are holding their breath and not retaliating," says Adnan Ali, senior member of the Shiite-dominated Dawa party.
Election day. Making sure Iraqis would have a place to cast their ballots in a free and a fair environment has been a monumental challenge for the Iraqi Independent Electoral Commission, a government agency formed under the auspices of the United Nations. On election day, more than 5,000 polling centers throughout Iraq will be open until 5 p.m. to the estimated 14 million eligible voters. The threat of violence has curtailed the number of polling centers envisioned in places such as Mosul, where only 40 voting centers will be open in a city of 2 million people. Security has also kept away most international observers. Because of overseas ballots and security concerns, results are not expected until mid-February. "In a transitional election, by definition, the environment is not very conducive to credible elections," said Carlos Valenzuela, the U.N. technical adviser to the electoral commission." It's amazing that it is coming together as it is."
Iraqis will face a national ballot with 111 political entities--independent candidates and lists formed by political parties--and seats in the national assembly will be awarded proportionately. In practice, most Iraqis will have no clear idea of which individuals they are voting for. Moqtada al-Sadr, the rebel street cleric, is rumored to hold a stake in the Sistani list, as is Ahmad Chalabi, a controversial figure who repositioned himself as pro-Shiite, anti-Baathist, and anti-American after falling out of favor in Washington.
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