Democracy under the gun
Preparing to vote, Iraqis wonder if elections will lead to peace or more chaos
A lot is riding--both here and in Washington--on how the election plays out. A credible vote would be a much needed accomplishment for President Bush, who stressed spreading freedom in an inaugural address that omitted specific mention of Iraq. Still, Bush administration officials now recognize that even a successful election would not immediately quell the persistent insurgency. The most they now hope for is a shift in momentum that would allow for an exit strategy and a chance to begin withdrawing some of the 150,000 U.S. troops. "[Elections do] not mean we're getting out. This is not a rapid force exit strategy," said a U.S. Embassy official. "You can't just pull out and leave without forces that can fill the gap."
To some degree, just holding an election may be seen as an achievement. "The fact that this is a transition from an appointed to an elected government--that's the significance," U.S. Ambassador John Negroponte told reporters on January 19. "For the Iraqis to have ownership of their own political process is also an extremely important thing."
When Iraqis go to the polls, they will vote to disperse that ownership among the variety of groups that have emerged on the political playing field--groups that define themselves more along ethnic, religious, and tribal lines than by political or policy platforms. The Shiite and Kurdish camps, whose leaders spent years in exile organizing and plotting to stake their claims, are better prepared to mobilize voters than the Sunni minority, which lacks viable leadership and whose constituency is largely based in the four most violent provinces of Iraq.
One favorable sign is that the Shiites can't wait to vote. After decades of oppression by Saddam Hussein's ruling Sunni minority, Shiite politicians are eager to move forward with the support of an enthusiastic constituency. Listen to the Shiite street and you hear the budding promise of democracy: "Participate in the elections and then afterwards discuss the problems on the table inside the national assembly. There is no need for bloodshed and the use of weapons," says Abdul Amir Jassem, a fast-talking medical student.
For the Sunnis, the political future is less certain. Between the threat of election-day violence and the fear of retaliation by neighbors after the vote, it is likely that on election day many Sunnis will simply stay home. "The Sunni Arab voters want to go to the polls [but] they are being intimidated by people who do not believe in the elections," says Sharif Ali bin Hussein, leader of the Constitutional Monarchy party and descendent of Iraq's deposed monarch. The result, Hussein says, is that "the government will have less of a mandate. If the Sunni provinces won't vote for the national assembly, [assembly members] will have to bend over backwards to include Sunnis in the government."
Built into the transitional administrative law is a clause that could enable a group like the Sunnis to quash a new Iraqi constitution: Only two thirds of the people in as few as three provinces would have to vote no in a referendum to be held by October 15. If any one group dominates the parliament, it will have to work hard to build a public consensus--ostensibly, a fail-safe provision to ensure that no one is left out of the political process.
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