A new leader, same old issues
Intifada fatigue among Palestinians, more than upcoming elections, may shape events
There is no vibe on the Palestinian street for this presidential race, the first since 1996 when Arafat won with 88 percent of the vote. One reason is the lack of suspense. Abbas's only strong challenger, Marwan Barghouti, the popular intifada commander serving multiple life sentences in Israeli prison, aborted his bid after Abbas's dominant Fatah movement threatened to expel him if he didn't. Hamas, second in strength to Fatah, is boycotting the election because it doesn't include local races, where the Islamic organization would stand to do well. (In recent West Bank municipal races, though, Hamas won nine to Fatah's 12.)
As for Abbas himself, the best Palestinians have to say about him is that he's sensible; his opponents, though, vilify him as a corrupt Fatah apparatchik and puppet of Israel and America. Such contempt was apparent near the Israeli Army checkpoint outside Jericho, where a line of Palestinian taxis was delayed for hours during security preparations for Abbas's visit to the city. "The Israelis wouldn't be doing this for Abu Mazen if he wasn't working for them," said one driver, using Abbas's nom de guerre. "F- - - his mother," said another. When Abbas's convoy of Jeep Cherokees, Mercedes-Benzes, and BMW s, escorted by Israeli security forces, drove through the checkpoint, the cab drivers taunted his entourage for its fancy cars. "Here's where the money for the revolution went. Here's the money they stole," a cabbie shouted to Abbas's aides, who stared straight ahead as the soldiers waved them past. The dozen or so hacks all said they would skip the election. "Why should we vote?" scoffed one. "Abu Mazen is going to win no matter what because Israel and America want him to."
Guerrillas have responded to Abbas's call for an end to the fighting by challenging him to get the Israelis to stop first. "A cease-fire should be mutual. We cannot accept a cease-fire while the Israeli aggression is continuing and escalating," says Hamas activist Ismail Haniyeh. Yet Prime Minister Ariel Sharon says the first step is for the Palestinians to stop terror, and in this Sharon has full backing from the Bush administration. What Israel and the United States demand from Abbas is police action to neutralize the guerrillas, whatever it takes.
However, no one has found the Palestinian policeman who would obey such an order, and Abbas makes it clear that he will never issue it. Referring to Hamas and Islamic Jihad in a campaign speech outside Ramallah, he says, "They told us, 'You have to uproot them.' We will not uproot. They told us, 'You have to strike them.' We will not strike. They are part of our people, and we will include them."
Opportunity? The containment of the intifada, the Palestinians' disillusionment, and the anticipated rise of a moderate like Abbas offer the potential for a break in the conflict. But few hereabouts discount Murphy's Law--"If anything can go wrong, it will." The distance between Abbas's intentions and the Palestinians' stated readiness for a mutual cease-fire, on the one hand, and actually reaching the point of shutting down all intifada violence, on the other, is great indeed. Nor would it be easy getting Israel to scrupulously keep the peace, given the Army's problem with overeager soldiers and hostile settlers in the Palestinians' midst.
So if the election of a new Palestinian president--the official kickoff of the post-Arafat era--offers the opportunity for change, it is at best a slim opportunity hedged with doubts. "I'm going to vote for Abu Mazen because I want to give him a chance. We're tired, and we need hope," says Maher Zaghloul, 23, an unemployed hotel administrator from Bethlehem who is waiting for the tourists to come back to the Holy Land. "But realistically, I don't expect anything to improve. Abu Mazen will get elected, and then things will go on like this for another five years, 10 years--who knows how long?"
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