Seeds of Chaos
The Baghdad Files: A trove of secret intelligence reports shows how Saddam Hussein planned the current insurgency in Iraq Long before the invasion that toppled his regime was even launched
Numerous reports linked al Qaeda and Ansar al-Islam to former regime operatives. "Reporting suggests greater cooperation between FRE and various actors--foreign elements and criminals--to facilitate violence," a military analyst wrote last January. These insurgents, the analyst wrote, favored "standoff" terrorist techniques--remotely detonated car bombs, roadside bombs, and mortar and rocket attacks.
Saddam's role in the insurgency ended last December 13 when American troops finally captured the disheveled former dictator. It was quite a comedown for a man who had lived lavishly and killed and tortured with abandon for more than a quarter century. The way U.S. intelligence analysts saw it, just days later, Saddam's capture would change little about the insurgency. New leaders would spring up among the former regime elements, they wrote. And they predicted, accurately, that the insurgency's attacks would continue, and even worsen. "The capture of Saddam Hussein will not likely deter insurgents who are fighting to 'free Iraq' from occupation," wrote an analyst for the Air Force Office of Special Investigations. "The perceived humiliation of the former Iraqi leader by current occupiers seen on international television, the lack of basic infrastructure needs, and the presence of foreign troops on Iraq's soil will continue to fuel support to a variety of terrorist groups."
INSURGENT ATTACKS
Baath Party operatives linked to Saddam Hussein's regime and Sunni extremists have bombed and assassinated their way across wide swaths of Iraq.
Attacks have been the fiercest within these provinces
Iraq
NINAWA: Mosul
Sunni triangle
SALAH AD DIN: Tikrit
AL ANBAR: Ramadi; Fallujah
BAGHDAD: Baghdad
Najaf
[Map labels]
ISRAEL
LEBANON
SYRIA
TURKEY
JORDAN
IRAN
MILES
0 100
Source: Brookings Institution; Council on Foreign Relations
Number of insurgent attacks
After a brief decline earlier this year, attacks on coalition forces have increased dramatically.
Nov. 2003 735 insurgent attacks
Dec. 13, 2003 Saddam Hussein captured
Apr. 2004 Sunni and Shiite violence
Apr. 29, 2004 U.S. agrees to end a 3-week siege of Fallujah.
June 28, 2004 U.S.transfers power
August 2004 Intense combat and bombings
August 2004 2,700 insurgent attacks
Oct.7, 2004 Shiite Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr agrees to cease-fire.
October 2004 2,400 insurgent attacks
Source: Brookings Institution; Council on Foreign Relations
-Edward T. Pound
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