Clubhouse catfight
Specter's struggle with conservatives has ominous overtones--even for the president
For 40 years, Arlen Specter, the son of a junkyard owner from Russell, Kan., has emerged from the political shadows at poignant moments to leave some indelible mark on the historical record: the single-bullet theory in the Kennedy assassination; his role in defeating the contentious Supreme Court nomination of Robert Bork in 1987; his harsh 1991 questioning of Anita Hill that helped put Clarence Thomas on the Supreme Court; and his vote of "not proven" on the impeachment of Bill Clinton, which Specter explained by citing Scottish law.
As George W. Bush prepares to begin his second term, another Specter moment is upon us. At 74, the senior Republican senator from Pennsylvania finds himself in the cross hairs of Christian conservatives who have received substantial credit for the president's re-election.
Big stakes. Tradition says Specter, just elected to his fifth term, will be the next chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee--but those angry conservatives mean to stop him. The face-off provides a telling preview of battles ahead. The administration must find a way to reach out to moderates, like Specter, whom it will need to advance its agenda, while keeping faith with those conservatives who helped put Bush over the top. It's not going to be easy.
Specter, who is pro-abortion rights, set off a firestorm after the election when he said he believed that judges who wanted to overturn the legality of abortions would have a difficult time getting confirmed by the Senate. "When you talk about judges who would change the right of a woman to choose, overturn Roe v. Wade, I think that is unlikely," Specter said. And while he has claimed repeatedly since then that his words were not meant as a warning to the White House, conservatives are out to get him.
"The courts are going to be the center of action for years to come. It's the most important part of the mandate that the conservative base of the party gave to President Bush on Election Day," says William Greene, president and founder of RightMarch.com, a conservative "527" fundraising organization that is agitating heavily against Specter. Groups like these are flooding the phone lines and the E-mail in boxes of Republican senators on the committee, urging them to pass over Specter. As chairman, Specter would hold great sway over the president's judicial nominees, and that's especially important because several Supreme Court vacancies are possible in Bush's second term. But for the Senate to deny Specter the chairmanship, which is based on seniority, would flout tradition in a body whose very foundation is tradition. "This is a real clash," says one Bush adviser. "Some elements of the religious right want a fight over Specter." The worry is that such a fight could hurt the president's ability to advance his second-term goals. And so the president's allies are passing word to social conservatives that Bush is not eager to get into this battle.
But Specter, who says his words were meant as neither a threat nor a warning to the president, is taking nothing for granted. He has issued clarifications and explanations, in writing and in person. He has gone on television and has been lobbying committee members, who will vote on his chairmanship this week. In an article for the Wall Street Journal 's opinion page, he wrote: "I have voted for all of President Bush's judicial nominees . . . . The current controversy was artificially created by incorrect reporting."
Despite the ideological contretemps, perhaps the surest truth is that Arlen Specter can count. "Fifty-five is not 60," he declared after Republicans picked up four Senate seats for a total of 55, 5 votes short of the 60 needed to end potential Democratic filibusters that could sink judicial nominees. "He was trying to say the obvious," says Terry Madonna of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa. "The president needs to be careful who he sends up to the Senate."
Some of Bush's allies see a silver lining: They intend to use the controversy to pressure Specter to bring all the administration's nominees up for votes in committee and on the Senate floor. But no one who really knows the Pennsylvania senator expects him to follow that script. "Arlen Specter prides himself on being nobody's boy," says Madonna. Perhaps the White House should take that as a warning.
With Kenneth T. Walsh
This story appears in the November 22, 2004 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.
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