Once More, With Feeling
As he accepts the nomination for a second term, President Bush tries to convince a nation he's the right man for the job
Just after 7 every morning, President Bush sits at his big mahogany desk in the Oval Office, sips a cup of black coffee, and learns of the latest potential horrors planned by the world's evildoers. These supersecret briefings tend to be downers for most of his senior aides because, one says, "mostly the intelligence business is telling you about what can go wrong." But Bush generally draws something positive from the experience. In recent weeks, he has been impressed by what he considers the high degree of international cooperation in the hunt for terrorists. Even though the war in Iraq and some of his other policies are unpopular abroad, he believes that, behind the scenes, law enforcement, intelligence, and military authorities are working hard around the globe to arrest, neutralize, and destroy the bad guys. He sees it as a growing "community of interest" that didn't exist 3 1/2 years ago.
This is the kind of optimism that impresses Bush's admirers, who see it as healthy. It also, of course, unsettles his detractors, who call it naive.
As the president prepares to accept renomination at the Republican National Convention this week, voters are sharply divided over whether Bush's sunny and determined outlook is what the nation needs and whether they want a continuation of Bush's controversial policies for another four years. Bush's challenge is complicated by the fact that it's not exactly "morning in America," the phrase Ronald Reagan used to such good effect in winning re-election 20 years ago. The country is at war, the economy is shaky, and large numbers of Americans have real doubts about the future. So far, Bush has served up a pretty thin gruel in outlining his menu of priorities for a second term. But he says that will change when he gives his acceptance speech at the convention Thursday night, and he believes strongly that the voters will give him a second term. "My support is very strong and very deep," the president told U.S. News in an Oval Office interview last Friday, fresh from campaigning in New Mexico. ". . . Big crowds . . . and that's a good sign. I mean, people, are they for me? ". . . It sure feels that way. Secondly, we've got a very smart strategy, but thirdly, we've got the issues and the philosophy. People are going to have to make up their mind who best to lead in the war on terror, who can handle crises, who can make decisions and stick with them, and at home who understands the environment we're in. In other words, this is a changing world, and therefore the proper role of government is to help people adapt to the changing world and give them the tools necessary to succeed. When it' s all said and done, I believe that I will be here for the next four years and be honored to do so, I might add."
White House officials and Bush allies say there is no way Bush's second-term agenda will be as bold or visionary as his first. With a staggering annual deficit projected at about $445 billion this year, Bush won't have much money to spend on new programs. Congress will remain closely and bitterly divided, probably resulting in a renewed stalemate on Capitol Hill. Most important, Bush still considers it his main mission to win the war on terrorism, and this would absorb most of his time and energy.
As for the campaign, Bush seems eerily confident about his eventual victory on November 2, even though polls show that his race with Democratic challenger John Kerry is dead even. For one thing, he believes voters will see he is better equipped than Kerry to take the fight to al Qaeda. "We need to defeat the terrorists around the world so we don't have to face them here at home," Bush told U.S. News. ". . . In this very complicated world we live in, in a world where the stakes are very high, we cannot send mixed signals to friend or foe alike. We must be consistent in our leadership. The enemy will misread . . . apparent weakness and therefore will put us at greater risk."
Friends say Bush is convinced that he was destined to serve as president for a purpose--to win that war, which has become the mission of his public life. He sees a comparison to Ronald Reagan, one of his heroes, who believed his mission was to end communism.
Black and white. Beyond the metaphysical, aides say, there are pragmatic reasons that Bush has the right stuff to defeat what he calls "the evildoers." "He's shown that he can do it," White House National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice told U.S. News . "You can't be on all sides of the issue. It really is a matter of black and white."
Administration officials argue that Bush has a clear record of success in this regard, having overthrown the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, deposed Saddam Hussein in Iraq, neutralized Libya, and effectively organized an international effort to destroy al Qaeda, although that effort probably will take years to complete. U.S. officials concede that public opinion in many countries has turned against the United States, and Bush in particular. But Rice adds: "We had to ask people to do some pretty hard things and face up to hard problems."
Rice says the president's vision for foreign policy is similar to his call for creating an "ownership and opportunity society" at home."The freer that people are, the more liberty they have," Rice says, "the more peaceful they'll be. When people believe they have no control over their destiny, violence is the way they respond to that lack of control."
To which Kerry and his allies respond: Nonsense. "If history is any guide," Rand Beers, Kerry's national security adviser, told U.S. News, "we can expect an American foreign policy [under a re-elected Bush] where we find ourselves isolated from the allies we need to fight the war on terror, less respected in the world, and hunkered down in Iraq and Afghanistan due to a fundamental lack of understanding about the enemy and the situation we face on the ground." And that, Kerry's strategists say, would mean more bloodshed and instability in Iraq, more hatred of America abroad, the breeding of more terrorists in the Mideast, and more trouble with North Korea, Iran, and the Palestinians. And that's just for starters.
More broadly, Bush's critics say he has not given voters enough specifics about his plans for a second term, but some in Bush's campaign don't think he really needs much of a second-term agenda, because the election will be mostly a referendum on his philosophy and his first-term record. "Part of the strength of the president," says a senior Bush adviser, "is the certainty you know what his vision is and what he's going to do."
Bush, unsurprisingly, sees it much the same way. "A second term," he said in his interview with U.S. News , "is going to build on the successes of the first, recognizing that the world we're in is a changing world that will have government support people, give them the tools necessary to be able to realize dreams." To this end, senior White House officials say Bush will use his convention speech to call for completing the unfinished business of his first term.
Economic policy. Administration officials say the president will push for making previous tax cuts permanent, for creating tax-free medical savings accounts, and for federal help with down payments for low-income home buyers. A high priority will be allowing citizens to divert some Social Security taxes to personal accounts that could be invested in stocks, bonds, and other financial instruments such as private savings accounts. But these are mainly recycled ideas from Bush's first term that so far have gone nowhere.
Congressional Republicans are pushing a national sales tax to replace the income tax, and Bush does want some kind of tax reform in his second term. One option under consideration: taxing people on what they spend, rather than what they earn, such as by allowing taxpayers to deduct money they put in savings and investments from their income.
All of Bush's plans are jeopardized by the massive deficits. Maintaining all the Bush tax cuts, including the reductions in income tax rates, capital gains, and dividend taxes, would add an additional $1 trillion to government budget shortfalls over the next decade, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation.
Judicial nominees. Bush will continue to nominate conservative judges to remake the federal judiciary. But Senate Democrats are expected to block many of them. Bush could have two or more vacancies on the Supreme Court, and filling them could spark one of the worst political donnybrooks in years, further fouling Washington's acrid political atmosphere. Which illustrates one of Bush's biggest failures--his inability to fulfill his promise of four years ago to be a "uniter, not a divider." Bush now admits privately that he underestimated the capital's animosities and overestimated his ability to bring all sides together.
Regulation . The administration will continue trying to promote economic growth by trimming government red tape. Bush will push his agenda of encouraging development of domestic energy supplies, such as oil reserves in Alaska, further antagonizing environmentalists and their congressional allies.
Education. Bush wants to strengthen his education-reform law known as No Child Left Behind, which set a series of standards and tests under which teachers, schools, and students are held accountable for their performance. The law has caused huge controversy, partly because critics say Bush has not won enough federal spending to make it work. It's unclear whether Bush can move this issue off the dime.
Military realignment. In mid-August, Bush outlined plans to recall as many as 70,000 troops from Germany, South Korea, and other parts of Europe and Asia as part of a far-reaching military realignment. Bush wants to update the U.S. force structure to make it more nimble and better able to fight the war on terrorism. Congressional reaction to the idea has been lukewarm, partly because a pullout might embolden North Korea. But Bush shows no sign of backing down.
Changing teams. There will be important changes in Bush's inner circle. "In the first term [of any president], you get the first team," says Rutgers political scientist Ross Baker. "By the second term, those people are getting tired, and the ones who remain tend to be less energetic, less vigilant, less politically sharp . . . and the president's attention tends to wander as well. There's a definitely a life cycle. A second-term president is almost like a radioactive substance. There is a rate of decay that can almost be quantified."
Among those expected to leave are Secretary of State Colin Powell, Education Secretary Rod Paige, and White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card. Powell's departure would remove the administration's most influential force for diplomacy and international coalition building. If Bush named another hard-liner at the State Department, it could further strengthen the hand of neoconservatives who favor a unilateral approach to foreign policy and who helped fashion Bush's doctrine of pre-emptive war. These include Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
On domestic and political matters, White House counselor and chief political strategist Karl Rove would be likely to expand his already strong conservative influence. "If President Bush is re-elected, Karl will rule the roost," says a Republican strategist with close ties to the White House (story, Page 30).
For his part, Bush is starting to show signs of wear. His hair is graying rapidly, and a recent knee injury sustained while he was jogging made the 58-year-old commander in chief feel his age. He recently took up mountain biking to get regular exercise and spend time outdoors. Aides say he seems a bit more prickly these days and gets angry when he loses a vote on Capitol Hill, when his adversaries target him with what he considers cheap shots, and when there are setbacks in Iraq. Bush vents at a number of his senior advisers, but Rove is most often on the receiving end--White House aides call it "chewing on Karl." That's partly because Rove is with the president so much and partly because Bush trusts Rove and knows he won't take the tongue-lashings personally. In any case, Bush's anger flashes and fades, and he gets back to normal quickly.
Walking the line. If anything, Bush's tribulations in dealing with the war on terrorism and the invasion of Iraq have deepened his religious faith. A born-again Christian, he spends some time every day reading the spiritual works of Oswald Chambers, a Scottish theologian who wrote during the World War I era and is still popular among Christians for his daily devotionals based on passages in the Bible. Chambers argued that an individual must do his or her best to make the right decisions, and the rest is "up to God." Bush shares the same philosophy, according to several White House officials and Bush friends. This is why he can stay so serene.
Chambers's text for this Thursday, when Bush accepts the Republican presidential nomination, calls for surrender of the individual to the Almighty. "Our spiritual life cannot be measured by success as the world measures it," Chambers wrote, "but only by what God pours through us--and we cannot measure that at all. . . . Our Lord is filled with overflowing joy whenever he sees any of us doing what Mary [of Bethany] did--not being bound by a particular set of rules but being totally surrendered to him."
Between now and November, Bush will try to walk the line between strength and stubbornness. "People believe he sticks to his principles," says a senior adviser. "The question will be, Who do you trust more to be a strong leader, to have the resolve to stay the course at a difficult time?" There is, of course, a flip side to that equation. "Bush's Achilles heel turns out to be that he's too rigid," says Democratic pollster Mark Penn, and this concerns many voters. They have two more months to figure out which side of George W. Bush would be most prominent in a second term.
With Kevin Whitelaw, Julian E. Barnes, James M. Pethokoukis and Thomas Omestad
This story appears in the September 6, 2004 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.