A nation of lost boys
In China, they're called "bare branches" --young men who are unlikely to find a mate, have children, or settle into a stable, prosperous lifestyle. It's a population that's growing rapidly in countries like China and India, where traditional preferences for boys (who are expected to care for parents) have led to dramatically skewed male-to-female ratios. The fallout, says a new book, Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia's Surplus Male Population : an increased chance of internal turmoil and even war in such places, because men without family ties tend to be more aggressive. Coauthors Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer point to studies linking "bare branches" to greater criminal violence and also argue their presence can make war more likely, as governments look for ways to channel the energies of angry, nationalistic young men--often into the military.
In China, 117 boys are now born for every 100 girls. In India, the official rate is 113 to 100, though spot checks in some locales have turned up ratios as high as 156 to 100. The gender gap is fueled by several factors, including infanticide and withholding of healthcare from girls. The introduction of ultrasound machines, often wheeled into rural villages, accelerated the imbalance in the mid-1980s as some parents opted to abort female fetuses. Abortion for sex selection is illegal in both China and India, but the practice remains common in some areas; ultrasound practitioners, says coauthor Hudson, may say nothing but may light a cigarette to signal that the mother is carrying a boy--or stamp one out if it's a girl.
China perceives some risk in the trend: Last month, it announced that it will offer financial incentives to try to normalize gender ratios by 2010. But with the first big wave of bare branches turning 18 and 19, Hudson says, the world is already facing a new source of volatility. -Thomas Omestad
This story appears in the August 9, 2004 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.
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