An American Krakatoa?
Sosnik believes this will be a historic election in which voters will want to send a message. "The people have not spoken since September 11 on the direction in which they want the country to go," he says. "At times like this, people want a decisive course, they want to deliver a mandate. Besides, Bush's actions are so aggressive, so muscular, that the dynamic middle of the country will choose a course either for Bush or for his opponent."
But what signs do we watch for (since waiting for Election Day itself is just too, too boring)? On this, Sosnik, a Democrat, and Dowd, a Republican, agree: The best indicator of how an incumbent president will do on Election Day is his approval rating. Two weeks ago, Dowd told U.S. News , "The incumbent president usually gets a vote right at his approval rating. If we are at a 51-52 approval (on Election Day), we will win by 1 or 2 points." When Dowd uttered those words, Bush had a Gallup approval rating of 52 percent; last week, it fell to 46 percent, the lowest of his presidency. "For an incumbent to be at 46 percent job approval at this point in an election year has historically always spelled defeat" for presidents since 1950, said Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll. A Pew Research Center poll released last week showed even lower numbers for Bush, with his approval at just 44 percent.
Still, whether this election is going to be decided soon or not until November, whether it will be a runaway or a deadlock, Matthew Dowd has some advice for everybody on how to handle it when the dust settles. "Don't dance in the end zone," he says, "and don't cry in your beer."
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