If Talking Fails, What Comes Next?
BAGHDAD--The biggest tragedy in Iraq--last week, at least--occurred when five car bombs ripped through police stations in the previously peaceful southern city of Basra, killing at least 74 people, including 20 schoolchildren whose buses happened to be passing by.
But the events that followed were, perhaps, the most telling about the current state of Iraq. Mourning for those killed by terrorists quickly became an antioccupation protest by hundreds of followers of the firebrand Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. And in Baghdad, outlandish rumors spread that America had done the bombings in retaliation for Iraqi police refusing to fight against the insurgents in Fallujah.
Meanwhile, negotiations for peaceful outcomes in the Sunni heartland city of Fallujah and the Shiite holy city of Najaf seemed to fall flat because of domestic power struggles that add to the questions about Iraq's ability to democratically govern itself anytime soon. "The huge, invisible problem that has come out of all the violence of the past few weeks is that democracy and freedom are now associated with chaos," says one senior Coalition Provisional Authority official. "This reinforced the idea that a strongman is needed to help them."
No surrender. Marines geared up for a renewed offensive against insurgents in Fallujah if the fighters continue to defy the so-called cease-fire arranged through civic leaders. Marine Lt. Gen. James Conway said the insurgents have been reinforcing their positions and show no intention of surrendering. The weapons that have been turned in under the terms of the cease-fire were "junk," he said. Marines reported that cars and ambulances drove through the city before insurgent attacks, blaring through their loudspeakers, "Kill the Americans, God bless the mujahideen [holy warriors]. Islam requires you to fight the enemy."
In the south, Sadr remains holed up in a Shiite mosque in Najaf and U.S. troops on the city's outskirts have pulled back, during inconclusive negotiations. "At one point there were six serious mediation efforts going on," says one source involved in the efforts. While some senior clerics involved in the mediation want to protect the shrines in Najaf, others are trying to undermine the U.S.-appointed Governing Council, according to the source. "It became evident," he said, "that there were so many political undertones to them that it was impossible to have any clear discussions."
In an effort to calm the restive Sunni populace, the U.S. occupation authorities announced a major policy shift that would bring back government officials and senior Iraqi Army officers who previously had been purged from their posts. The move is intended to ease Sunni grievances and fill a gap in much-needed expertise in both government ministries and the new Iraqi security forces. -Bay Fang
This story appears in the May 3, 2004 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.
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