Nasa's Next Step
Can the manned space program find a new, revitalizing mission in the wake of the Columbia tragedy?
NASA's immediate goal is to get the shuttles safely flying again, perhaps as early as next March. And it does intend to complete the station, according to William Readdy, associate administrator for space flight. That task requires the shuttles, because the ISS modules were designed to fit into their cargo bays. But then the costly, fragile shuttles could be mothballed. Before the accident, some NASA officials had vowed to keep them flying through 2020. "I don't think [that's] plausible now," says Cowing.
The problem, says Lane, is that "there is nothing in the pipeline" to take their place. In the short term, NASA could speed plans for the orbital space plane, a sort of space taxi that could take the load off the shuttles by ferrying crews--but not heavy equipment--to the station. Barton thinks the craft could be ready in about five years, at a cost of $10 billion to $15 billion, although what it would look like is anyone's guess: Proposals include both winged vehicles and capsules, lofted by expendable rockets. But a true shuttle replacement is nowhere in sight. What to build depends on the mission. If the agency set its sights on the moon or Mars, it would need a more powerful and flexible launch system than if its future is in low Earth orbit.
NASA itself isn't about to articulate grand new goals. NASA chief Sean O'Keefe has said that talking about trips to Mars is pointless because the technology for such missions doesn't exist. "I don't understand that logic at all," retorts Louis Friedman, an engineer and the executive director of the Planetary Society. "If you really want to drive technology, you have to have a goal."
There's a rising chorus of voices in Congress echoing that sentiment, among them Republican House Speaker Tom DeLay's. Rhetoric isn't enough, as President Bush's father found in 1989 when he proposed a program to return to the moon and explore Mars. NASA, preoccupied with the shuttles and the ISS, said the plan would cost $450 billion, and Congress deep-sixed it. Yet Barton, who wants NASA's budget doubled, and other lawmakers believe today's Congress is ready to give the agency a revitalizing mission and the money to realize it.
Seize the moment. History is on their side. NASA has gotten budget boosts in midterm election years or after calamities. "But it's a narrow window of opportunity. It's not going to last more than six months," says American University space expert Howard McCurdy. Moreover, it won't happen without White House support--and given war, terror, and budget deficits, that may be a long shot.
Barton will meet with Bush next month in hopes of gaining that support. But advocates of a new mission for NASA also need to agree about what to push for. "There doesn't seem to be a consensus on where we ought to go or why we ought to go there," notes Readdy. Some urge a return to the moon. Others want a mission to Mars. Some would junk the space station. Others would maintain it and even reconfigure it into an orbital launchpad.
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