A tightening noose
The capture of an al Qaeda mastermind spurs a manhunt for Osama bin Laden and company
For now, the government's terrorism experts are not sure who might replace Mohammed. There are candidates among midlevel operatives, such as Walid Attash, the Yemeni who engineered the plot to bomb the USS Cole, and Abu Mohammad al-Masri, an Egyptian operational planner. "Some of these midrankers who come out may be more ruthless, even if they're not as strategic," says Ahmed Hashim, a terrorism analyst at the Naval War College. This means that al Qaeda could end up plotting fewer "spectaculars" like 9/11--Mohammed's specialty--and smaller, more frequent attacks on softer targets like private American interests abroad.
Unfortunately, some of Mohammed's likely replacements may already be outside America's reach. U.S. News has learned that American officials have intelligence suggesting that an increasing number of key al Qaeda leaders are hiding out in Iran, where local officials generally have been unwilling to hand over suspects to the United States and its allies. Pakistani intelligence sources say that more than 100 sworn al Qaeda members are based in Iran.
Vengeance. Still, it will be difficult for al Qaeda to recover from the loss of Mohammed. With no clear heir apparent, some intelligence officials foresee a power struggle and speculate that different al Qaeda affiliates could decide to go their separate ways. Others might simply go to ground. "They can't retaliate at this point because most of them are changing their residencies and identities," says Rohan Gunaratna, a leading terrorism expert and author of Inside al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror. "Once they regroup, they will retaliate. Islamists think five, 10, 20 years down the road."
Even if al Qaeda disappears, the threat of Islamic terrorism remains. Many experts worry that the U.S. war on terror is doing little to address the root causes of extremism, such as poverty and hopelessness, or the appeal of jihad (or holy war). Anti-Americanism appears to be growing worldwide at an alarming rate. "The overall ranks of jihadists are increasing, not decreasing," one intelligence source tells U.S. News. "You can dismantle [al Qaeda], but this wellspring of hatred and discontent is still growing." U.S. intelligence is also warning that a war with Iraq might serve as an effective recruiting tool for a range of terrorist groups, much like what happened after the Gulf War in 1991.
Down the line, many experts fear a more diffuse, but equally violent, threat. "Even a fool with a grenade in his hands can make things happen," says a senior government official, citing shoe bomber Richard Reid. As important as Mohammed's arrest is in hurting al Qaeda, some experts warn that it may end up being only a fleeting victory. "We're in a big, long war, and this isn't the end of it," says Gary Richter, a terrorism analyst at the Sandia National Laboratories. "The danger is that we risk becoming like the Israelis--tactically adept at fighting terrorism but strategically with an intractable problem on our hands."
With David E. Kaplan, Chitra Ragavan, Aamir Latif, Laurie Lande and William Boston
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