A Balance of Terror
North Korea's nuclear ambitions could trigger an arms race in Asia
Banned the bomb. South Korea has also shunned the bomb, though it conducted covert nuclear weapons research in the 1970s until the United States leaned on Seoul to shut it down. "They were close," says the U.S. official. "The plans are on the shelf." (Washington also demanded that Taiwan halt its nuclear research around the same time.) Though analysts believe the South might react to a prolonged nuclear crisis by acquiring antimissile systems and perhaps offensive missiles, the Seoul government insists the nuclear question is closed. "South Korea knows it can be safely protected behind the U.S. military. The U.S. [nuclear] umbrella is sufficient," says a senior official in Seoul.
South Korea is also defended by a "tripwire" 37,000-member U.S. military force. Yet even before the current tensions, U.S. News has learned, the Pentagon was studying a possible reduction in the ground force, which has been a magnet for anti-American protests in the South, coupled with other changes including greater emphasis on Navy and Air Force precision-strike weapons. Those moves, however, could be complicated by the nuclear crisis if U.S. officials believe that North Korea would interpret them as a weakening of the U.S. commitment to defending the South.
But in Seoul, some people already believe that American nuclear protection isn't enough. "If South Korea has nuclear weapons, then South Korea will never fear North Korea, because it will know that if North Korea bombs South Korea, it will be bombed by us," reasons Kim Young Tak, a 43-year-old middle school teacher. Nuclear deterrence, it's been said, has an undeniable logic.
The North Korean threat
U.S. intelligence agencies believe that North Korea has "one, possibly two" nuclear weapons. It agreed to freeze its nuclear-weapons program in a 1994 deal with the United States but is now preparing to resume those activities. If unchecked, experts say, North Korea could produce five to seven nuclear bombs this year--and eight to 10 by the end of 2005--enough to alter the strategic balance in East Asia. North Korea is probably capable of deploying nuclear or chemical warheads on ballistic missiles able to strike South Korea and Japan, and it has worked on the Taepo Dong-2 missile, which has an estimated range that could include part of Alaska.
THE TWO KOREAS
NORTH
POPULATION: 22.2 million
GDP: $21.8 billion*
GDP per capita: $1,000*
SOUTH
48.3 million
GDP: $865 billion*
GDP per capita $18,000*
Figures are estimates
*Adjusted for purchasing-power differences
[Map is not available]
[Map labels]
CHINA
RUSSIA
NORTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA
Sea of Japan
Korea Bay
Nuclear-reactor site
Nuclear-related facility
Missile-production facility
Pyongyang
Yongbyon
Seoul
Demilitarized zone
TAEPO DONG-2
In development.
The estimated 2,500 to 3,700-mile range could enable it to strike Alaska.
UNDER THE GUN
North Korea's current midrange ballistic missiles, No Dong and Taepo Dong-1, could carry chemical or nuclear warheads against South Korea, Japan, Russia, and China.
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[Map labels]
RUSSIA
CHINA
N. KOREA
JAPAN
S. KOREA
Pacific Ocean
Alaska
Taepo Dong-2: Estimated range 2,500 miles - 3,700 miles
Taepo Dong-1: 900 miles
No Dong missile: 600 miles
Military Might
CHINA
Nuclear warheads 410
Military forces 2.3 million
RUSSIA
Nuclear warheads 20,000
Military forces 1 million
JAPAN
Nuclear warheads 0
Military forces 239,800
U.S. troops in Japan 38,330
NORTH KOREA
Nuclear warheads 1 or 2
Military forces 1.08 million
SOUTH KOREA
Nuclear warheads 0
Military forces 683,000
U.S. troops in S. Korea 37,000
UNITED STATES
Nuclear warheads 10,700
Military forces 1.4 million
Sources: CIA World Factbook, 2002; Carnegie Endowment for International Peace;, Globalsecurity.org; Center for Nonproliferation Studies; Monterey Institute for International Studies; Korea image from MODIS Land Rapid Response Team at NASA/GSFC
Graphic by Stephen Rountree--USN&WR
With Mark Mazzetti, Hanawald, Jennifer, Du Mars, Roger, Jennifer Hanawald and Roger du Mars
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