A Balance of Terror
North Korea's nuclear ambitions could trigger an arms race in Asia
Some Russian and Chinese military analysts doubt that the North Koreans have been able to make workable weapons. U.S. proliferation specialists, however, believe that the North has conducted dozens of test explosions of the sort that can touch off a chain reaction in plutonium.
Selling nukes. A half-dozen nukes would make Asia a different place. "It's a much more threatening capability," says Robert Einhorn, a former top U.S. nonproliferation official. The weapons could be dispersed--and hidden in underground bunkers. And North Korea's track record of selling missiles to countries such as Pakistan and Yemen raises an even more chilling prospect: the world's first department store for nukes, with terrorists and rogue states as potential hard-currency customers. One senior U.S. official doubts Kim would go that far: "I think he knows we would cause him to disappear."
The Bush administration has been trying to orchestrate international pressure on the North to disarm--with limited success. In a shift last week, the president softened his rhetoric, hinting that impoverished North Korea might receive aid, energy supplies, and even agreements on security and diplomatic recognition if it verifiably quits its nuclear projects. South Korea's incoming president, Roh Moo Hyun, has frustrated administration hawks by portraying himself as a possible mediator between Pyongyang and Washington, and Seoul opposes sanctions or other efforts to isolate the North. Russia, which has friendly ties with the North, remains stuck in a "denial phase" on Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions, says Alexander Vershbow, the U.S. ambassador to Moscow.
China may be the key: North Korea depends on China for food and fuel, but Beijing has been reluctant to squeeze Pyongyang, fearing chaos, mass refugee flows, and a U.S. presence on its border if the North collapses. U.S. officials welcomed China's offer last week to host U.S.-North Korean talks, but they hope for more. Envoys are reminding the Chinese that Washington has opposed a nuclear-armed Japan or South Korea. "We say, `We've carried your water on nuclear issues for 50 years. Now it's your turn to do it for us,' " says a senior U.S. diplomat.
Japan has edged closer to the U.S. approach than has South Korea. The Japanese public was enraged by revelations last fall of North Korean abductions of Japanese. Normalization talks have stalled. After the nuclear crisis emerged, officials in Tokyo approached the Bush administration about increasing Japan's role in theater missile defenses. The revulsion at atomic weapons is deep in Japan, the only country to have suffered a nuclear attack. But the idea that Japan someday might have to abandon its non-nuclear stance has also gained currency in conservative circles. If Pyongyang brandishes atomic weapons, says Ryukichi Imai, a former diplomat and government adviser on atomic energy, "there would be a lot of voices in Japan saying this country should do it too." But, he predicts, "Japan will never have the bomb. We know too much about nuclear weapons." Still, U.S. officials note that Japan has plenty of plutonium and technical know-how. "Japan in six to 12 months could be missiled and weaponed up," says a senior U.S. official.
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