A losing gambit
India and Pakistan flirt with nuclear confrontation (again)
Another problem is that both sides have kept their programs--and strategic plans--remarkably secret. "Nobody really knows what the thresholds are" that would trigger a nuclear strike, says Khan. This leaves plenty of room for misunderstandings. Even U.S. officials are uncomfortable with how little they know about the command and control facilities or the safety procedures, especially in Pakistan. "We don't have enough knowledge in that area," acknowledges one administration official.
In the end, the only way to reduce the danger will be to deal with underlying problems. Recently, Indian officials have echoed Bush's antiterrorism rhetoric to denounce Pakistan for supporting militants. But the fundamental problem remains the dispute over Kashmir, the Himalayan region the two have fought over since independence from Britain. Last week, Bush telephoned Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, reluctantly inserting himself into the crisis for the first time. Kashmir, it turns out, may be one more area of the world that the United States cannot afford to ignore.
Deadly scenarios
The nuclear blast and fallout of a 12-kiloton fission bomb explosion in the capitals of India and Pakistan would kill hundreds of thousands.
[Chart labels]
Fatality rates from a nuclear strike
Fallout
90 pct. die at epicenter; 80 pct.; 50 pct.; 30 pct.; 10 pct.; 1 pct.
Approximately 20 miles
(Model assumes prevailing easterly winds)
If India hits Islamabad
Range of initial blast: 1.75 miles
Range of lethal fallout: 6.3 miles
Estimated immediate civilian deaths by blast: 115,000
Estimated civilian deaths by fallout: 195,000
If Pakistan hits New Delhi
Range of initial blast: 1.68 miles
Range of lethal fallout: 6.3 miles
Estimated immediate civilian deaths by blast: 125,000
Estimated civilian deaths by fallout: 365,000
Pakistan India
Nuclear warheads 25 to 50 50 to 150
Armed forces 620,000 1.3 million
180,000+ 260,000+
in Kashmir in Kashmir
Combat aircraft 353 738
Over 12 over 36
In Kashmir in Kashmir
Armed helicopters 0 22
Tanks 2,300 3,414
Sources: Heritage Foundation, Jane's, International Institute for Strategic Studies
[Map]
India
Pakistan
Kashmir
Afghanistan
China
New Delhi
Islamabad
Arabian Sea
Bay of Bengal
Source: Heritage Foundation, Jane's, International Institute for Strategic Studies
With Aamir Latif and Soni Sangwan
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