Reading The Threat Matrix
Once again, the nation is on edge, amid warnings that terrorists may strike--somehow, sometime, somewhere. How real is the danger?
The threat information can, at times, become quite overwhelming. There is a seemingly endless number of ways that terrorists could theoretically stage attacks. One former FBI counterterrorism specialist admits to being partially relieved that he isn't sifting through the daily flood of data now. "I don't have nightmares anymore," he says.
Many experts think the public should not be inundated with speculative warnings, like some of those issued recently. But the White House is trapped in a frustrating Catch-22 where it gets criticized from both directions. "If you don't give them specific information, then you get accused of withholding information," says one intelligence source. "If you pass it on, then you get accused of being alarmist and covering your ass."
To be fair, there is never great intelligence about terrorists. The groups are terribly difficult to penetrate. And terrorist groups like al Qaeda have become sophisticated about concealing their plans and communicating secretly. Intelligence officials are left to read tea leaves--often in the dark. "You don't get the name," says Ted Price, who used to run the covert side of the CIA. "You don't get the date." Often, analysts know when something is up. They just don't know what it is.
Perils and politics. Despite the uncertainty, everybody agrees that the terrorist threat remains very real. "Al Qaeda needs to demonstrate to its adherents that it survives, and the way it demonstrates survival is to conduct terrorist operations," says U.S. State Department counterterrorism coordinator Francis Taylor.
Still, with congressional pressure heating up, there were also suggestions that the new flood of warnings was aimed at deflecting criticism that the Bush administration failed to heed pre-September 11 warnings. "It does help to divert attention," says one congressional source. "The FBI is under a serious, serious gun right now. The more scared they can make everyone, the more they can say we need the FBI to protect us." The administration, led by Cheney, angrily rejects such talk, calling it irresponsible.
But the intelligence committees on Capitol Hill spent much of last week listening to Phoenix FBI agent Kenneth Williams testify about his eerily prescient memo warning last July that al Qaeda operatives might be training in U.S. flight schools. Congress is promising more revelations when its hearings begin next week, despite the Bush administration's reservations. "We're just beginning," says Alabama Republican Sen. Richard Shelby, the vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee.
As terrorism warnings continue to surface, one signal to watch is the color-coded alert system run by the Homeland Security Office. Despite last week's hubbub, the alert code never budged from yellow, which denotes an elevated threat--the same level it has been at since the system was created in March. Advises one intelligence official, "You have to live your life."
With Kit R. Roane and Mark Mazzetti
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