India and Pakistan become the powder keg next door
Blood Feud
As the search for al Qaeda and Taliban leaders becomes a haystack pursuit, a less publicized terrorist attack has taken on global importance. Though only 14 people died in the Dec. 13, 2001, assault on India's Parliament in New Delhi--including five Islamic gunmen with ties to Pakistan-based terrorist groups--its fallout has sparked an ominous military face-off between the world's newest, poorest, and most antagonistic nuclear powers. Hanging in the balance: the U.S. hunt for Osama bin Laden, the global coalition against terrorism--and the threat of atomic war.
Since the 1980s, Pakistan has sponsored a variety of armed radicals in the disputed Indian state of Kashmir. The Pakistanis say they are freedom fighters out to liberate an oppressed area that should have been allowed to join Pakistan when the Muslim nation was established in 1947. But to the Indians, the Kashmiri insurgents are terrorists--and their Pakistani sponsors are complicit. Pakistani support for separatist groups long has been a flash point between the countries, especially as fundamentalists linked to al Qaeda took the leading role in the insurgency.
But the attack on Parliament pushed the matter to a new level. Demanding that Pakistan's military regime crack down on Kashmiri terrorist groups like Lashkar-i-Taiba and Jaish-i-Mohammed, India last month expelled dozens of Pakistani diplomats and massed hundreds of thousands of troops along the 1,800-mile border. Pakistan responded in kind, part of an escalation that has included India's shutdown of air and rail links between the countries and Pakistan's squelching of popular Indian TV channels. After phone calls from President Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf arrested leaders of the two groups along with dozens of activists, shut their offices, and froze bank accounts.
Great beginning. U.S. officials call the Pakistani actions "a great beginning" and caution that Musharraf needs time to move against groups that remain popular at home. But Indian officials, questioning the Pakistani's motives, responded to the arrests by issuing a new list of suspects they want handed over. As Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee both arrived at a regional conference in Nepal--where they did not plan to meet one on one--the situation remained volatile.
The Bush administration is feeling the war jitters, too. A clash with India, Pakistanis warn, would oblige them to reposition the tens of thousands of troops now combing the Afghan frontier for fleeing al Qaeda terrorists. Pakistani sources tell U.S. News that 2,000 elite troops have already been moved. State Department officials could not confirm any redeployment, but experts emphasize that Pakistan has an interest in exploiting U.S. fears that Indian pressure could help terrorists escape.
In fact, both countries have sought to manipulate America's new interest in the region. India wants the United States, with its global commitment to vanquish terrorism, to come down hard on Pakistan--which, after all, cut the Taliban loose after Washington insisted. But in allowing U.S. forces to use its airspace and military bases to fight the Taliban, Pakistan became a key U.S. ally. Many Pakistanis think America should pay them back by helping to solve the Kashmir issue. The Bush administration very likely has not seen the last of such demands. The war on terrorism may often inject the United States into regional squabbles. It's one more reason to believe Bush when he says the war on terrorism won't be quick or easy.
This story appears in the January 14, 2002 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.