High Hopes
The Clinton era; Bill Clinton takes office amid a surge of inaugural optimism and popular good will
All beginnings start with hope. All babies are cute, all brides are beautiful, all new presidents have the sheen of promise and possibility. The scars and scandals will come soon enough. But for the new president and his eager party, now returning to power after 12 years in exile, the inauguration brings a season of fresh breezes, fresh faces and fresh starts. It is a moment that has happened only 20 times in the 204 years since Washington's inauguration: a new president's succeeding a leader of a different party.
As the excited throngs lining Pennsylvania Avenue cheer Bill and Hillary Clinton and Al and Tipper Gore, they are also cheering America's endurance as a vibrant democracy, as a place--still relatively rare in the world--where power transfers peacefully according to popular will. Though disappointment permeates the Oval Office--only one of the last seven presidents has served two full terms--Inauguration Day always summons the special American belief in a brighter future.
A new poll by U.S. News highlights this optimism: Sixty-nine percent of those surveyed view Clinton favorably, with only 25 percent holding a negative view. That represents a remarkable turnaround from Election Day 11 weeks ago, when 57 percent of the voters backed other candidates and more than half voiced serious doubts about Clinton's capacity to be president. Since then, consumer confidence has increased, sparking the best Christmas sales season in five years, and 67 percent of the U.S. News sample now expect their own economic situation to improve over the next year. By a margin of 2 to 1, moreover, voters think they and their families will be better off as a result of Clinton's policies. Americans may not be in love with Clinton, but they do believe he will improve their lives, and they want to give him a chance to prove them right.
Sax symbol. This inauguration, however, signifies more than a shift in party or policy. It also marks a shift of generations, and of cultures. Clinton, who spent his youth protesting a war, is replacing a man who spent his youth fighting one, and the faint whiff of rebellion still clings to the new president. All presidents are remembered for certain symbols--from FDR's jaunty cigarette holder to George Bush's manic cigarette boat. So far, the most memorable image of Bill Clinton is of his wearing sunglasses, playing the saxophone on the Arsenio Hall show. The instrument has become the talisman of the new administration, appearing on everything from earrings to cuff links. The official catalog of inaugural souvenirs features a sax-tooting Clinton emblazoned on shirts, caps and bags encircled by the legend: "The Cure for the Blues." Clinton the Blues Brother is a bit of an outlander, and even if his image has been burnished by the best minds in Hollywood, it reflects a core of validity, and the public believes it.
Hillary Clinton, too, has become an important symbol of the new administration, and her favorable rating is now 63 percent, just slightly below her husband's. Perhaps because of her prominence, the two groups expected to fare best under Clinton are women and children, and the political implications of that are enormous. In postelection surveys, men preferred the Republican Party by four points, but working women favored the Democrats over the Republicans by 20 points.
Since the election, Clinton has shown many of the sure-footed political instincts that led him to victory. By about 4 to 1, voters approve of his cabinet choices and the priority he has placed on women and minorities in his government. But the transition has also revealed a flaw in Clinton's makeup: a fierce desire to make all statements, and decisions, himself. The result has been a bottleneck in key areas, from picking advisers to crafting an economic plan. In an interview with U.S. News (story, Page 42), Clinton admits that his problem is exactly opposite to that of Ronald Reagan, who seemed too detached from the detailed business of government: "I can't see everybody, I can't make every decision. I have to have real discipline . ..."
Haste makes waste. While Clinton's desire for diversity is widely applauded, it has led to several hasty appointments and embarrassing moments for the nascent administration. Zoe Baird, his choice for attorney general, was selected in less than two days. Last week she came under criticism for hiring two illegal aliens, then not paying their Social Security taxes--violations that raised questions about her capacity to be the nation's chief law enforcer. And Ron Brown, the commerce secretary-designate, was forced to cancel several glitzy inaugural parties in his honor paid for by large corporations. Clinton also is not yet sure how to handle Republican requests that Brown disclose his lobbying client list. The problems surrounding Baird and Brown have distracted Clinton and tarnished the pristine ethical image he wanted to project--particularly to supporters of Ross Perot, who gets an impressive favorable rating of 64 percent in the U.S. News poll.
A far more serious test for Clinton will be his ability to deliver on his campaign promises to improve the economy. Even though optimism has increased, most Americans still feel mired in a disheartening recession: Only 37 percent view their own financial health as good or excellent, while 62 percent say it is fair or poor. Their view of the country is even gloomier. Just 12 percent are positive about the national economic picture, and 87 percent are negative. As a result, they want action. More than half say that economic problems should be Clinton's top priority, and 2 out of 3 expect him to "make progress" within his first year. One of Clinton's biggest land mines will be health care. More than half expect him to "accomplish a lot" in this area, and their urgency is clearly personal: One in 5 says someone in the family has lost health benefits in the last year, and 2 in 5 have had to accept reduced benefits. Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says these unrealistically high expectations should send a danger signal to the new White House, because it has no excuses for failure: "People figure the Democrats will get this right, and that's an enormous burden."
Broken promises. Clinton is now grappling with sharply increased projections for budget deficits and health-care costs. As a result, the new president and his team are scuttling backward from a series of campaign promises: cutting taxes for the middle class, reducing the deficit and proposing an economic game plan on his first day in office. In the U.S. News interview, Clinton admitted the backtracking but said it was justified: "The deficit is bigger than I thought it was, and I had to revisit everything that costs money."
Fair enough. But Clinton still faces the criticism that he failed to anticipate economic trends when he crafted his initial program. He was always going to have trouble paying for everything he proposed. Now the task is clearly impossible, but he managed to postpone the day of reckoning until after the election. Moreover, the new president is trying to rewrite history, accusing the press of putting too much emphasis on his plans for a middle-class tax cut, when Clinton himself repeatedly invoked the issue during his campaign.
More seriously, the symbolism of backing down on a visible promise hurts Clinton because it stokes lingering fears that he is too "political" and untrustworthy. In addition, as the budget deficit expands and Clinton's choices contract, the new president faces an electorate that is far from agreeing on how to tighten its belt. Modest majorities would back cutting defense or increasing business taxes, but the electorate clearly opposes two widely publicized options: higher gasoline taxes and reduced health-care benefits for wealthier retirees.
To make matters worse, Clinton's time and attention have been badly disrupted by an avalanche of unexpected and intractable foreign problems. The most urgent could involve Iraq's Saddam Hussein, whose nation was bombed last week by America and its allies for violations of United Nations resolutions (stories, Pages 53 and 58). The complication Clinton faces that George Bush did not is that Iran has become more menacing in the region, and that requires a more calibrated policy aimed at preventing either Iran or Iraq from dominating the pivotal Persian Gulf.
In the foreign area, as in domestic policy, Clinton is facing the painful collision of campaign rhetoric with practical reality. Although he criticized Bush for turning Haitian refugees away from American shores without a hearing, he now finds that continuing the policy is the only realistic option.
Even as he is enveloped by the euphoric glow of inauguration week, Clinton can already see the end of the honeymoon. A man who wants to be loved by everybody will have to start making decisions, and enemies. But he launches his presidency with the firm hopes and clear confidence of the American people behind him. The question is whether Clinton can maintain that good will, while telling people the truth about the messy and chaotic world he will now try to lead.
A NATION TURNS EXPECTANT EYES TO CLINTON The support Americans are giving Bill Clinton extends to many things--his wife, his decision to send his daughter to a private school and his appointments. It is built, though, not on personal feelings about Clinton, but on expectations he will change the nation's course. Major U.S. News poll findings:
WHICH CATEGORY BEST DESCRIBES YOUR OPINION OF THE FOLLOWING PEOPLE?
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE BILL CLINTON 69 pct. 25 pct. AL GORE 63 pct. 21 pct. CONGRESS 36 pct. 53 pct. ANALYSIS: Clinton's strongest support comes from those living in large cities and in rural areas, and from women and blacks. He fares least well among Westerners, baby boomers and those who say they are very religious. THE TOP-PRIORITY PROBLEMS THAT CLINTON SHOULD ADDRESS QUICKLY:
REDUCING THE DEFICIT 33 pct. HEALTH-CARE REFORM 31 pct. CREATING JOBS 28 pct. FOREIGN-POLICY CRISES 25 pct. EDUCATION REFORM 10 pct. OTHER ECONOMIC PROBLEMS 29 pct. ANALYSIS: His big political task is to convince Ross Perot's supporters he's serious about deficit reduction. Perot's bloc is mostly made up of younger men with high-school educations and blue-collar jobs. AMERICANS WHO THINK THE PRESIDENT CAN ACCOMPLISH A LOT ON THE FOLLOWING ISSUES:
REDUCING THE DEFICIT 35 pct. REFORMING HEALTH CARE 55 pct. IMPROVING RACE RELATIONS 41 pct. IMPROVING SCHOOLS 56 pct. CREATING JOBS 50 pct. CHANGING THE WELFARE SYSTEM 50 pct. ANALYSIS: If Clinton makes no headway fixing the health-care crisis, he will suffer. AMERICANS WHO WORRY A LOT THAT THEY WILL:
BE A CRIME VICTIM 36 pct. LOSE HEALTH INSURANCE 34 pct. LOSE A JOB 29 pct. ANALYSIS: The pressure for health-care reform is driven by voters' very immediate fears. DO YOU SUPPORT THE UNITED STATES SENDING MORE AID TO RUSSIA?
YES 27 pct. NO 68 pct. ANALYSIS: Americans want home-front problems to preoccupy the president. WOULD YOU FAVOR OR OPPOSE THESE STEPS BY CLINTON TO CUT THE DEFICIT?
FAVOR OPPOSE RAISE GASOLINE TAXES 42 pct. 54 pct. INCREASE MEDICARE PREMIUMS FOR UPPER INCOME SENIORS 35 pct. 60 pct. INCREASE TAXES ON SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS FOR UPPER-INCOME SENIORS 49 pct. 46 pct. CUT DEFENSE SPENDING EVEN MORE THAN BUSH PROPOSED 54 pct. 40 pct. DROP PLANS FOR A MIDDLE-CLASS TAX CUT 50 pct. 43 pct. DROP PLANS FOR SOME PROGRAMS TO GET THE ECONOMY GOING 57 pct. 30 pct. REDUCE TAX BREAKS FOR HEALTH INSURANCE 54 pct. 37 pct. REDUCE TAX DEDUCTIONS FOR HOME MORTGAGES 48 pct. 48 pct. INCREASE TAXES FOR BUSINESSES 48 pct. 42 pct. ANALYSIS: There is hardly consensus for sacrifice. The items with strong majorities--cutting defense spending and dropping a stimulus program--are already in place and the biggest deficit cutters are the least accepted. AMERICANS WHO THINK THESE GROUPS WILL BENEFIT FROM CLINTON'S POLICIES:
WOMEN 71 pct. CHILDREN 70 pct. POOR PEOPLE 64 pct. BLACKS 63 pct. MIDDLE CLASS 51 pct. ANALYSIS: Clinton's pledge to be a "New Democrat" sells. Watch the figure on the middle class. If it worsens, Clinton suffers.
AMERICANS WHO THINK THESE GROUPS WILL SUFFER FROM CLINTON'S POLICIES:
WEALTHY 50 pct. LOBBYISTS 43 pct. ANALYSIS: Clinton's best opening to Perot supporters is to attack lobbyists. But his own cabinet is full of lobbyists and lawyers. DO YOU APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE OF THE FOLLOWING THINGS THAT CLINTON HAS DONE?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE CHOOSING PEOPLE TO FILL CABINET POSTS 64 pct. 15 pct. GIVING PRIORITY TO WOMEN AND MINORITIES FOR HIGH--LEVEL POSITIONS 75 pct. 17 pct. ANALYSIS: If Clinton's nominees or his proposals get bogged down, this support will weaken a lot.
U.S. News poll of 1,005 adults conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates Jan. 12-13, 1993. Margin of error: plus or minus 3 percent. Percentages may not add up to 100 because some respondents answered "Don't know." Celinda Lake consulted on this poll.
This story appears in the January 25, 1993 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.