Ready or not, it's go for launch
Kadish deflects such criticisms. "We have scripted tests to make sure the components work," he says. The results so far, together with computer modeling, "have convinced us it will work as intended." He pledges that more realistic testing will occur and argues that's why the system must first be deployed.
That's the reverse of the usual practice in the military, where new weapons systems are normally put through rigors of operational testing--tests done under battle conditions--before they are deployed. But Kadish says, "We can't do operational testing until we build it in the place where it will be operated." Fort Greely's missile field, he says, will be a "test bed" as well as an operational base.
That could prove costly, says Theodore Postol. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology physicist, who worked on the Trident missile program, says, "You want to test a system to the highest degree of confidence, because once it's deployed, it costs a fortune to modify it."
Not that Postol thinks further testing would ensure success. He and many other weapons experts believe a midcourse system is doomed to failure. "I can guarantee it won't work," Postol says. Simply enclosing the warhead in an aluminum-coated mylar balloon and releasing similar balloons as decoys would be enough to befuddle the most sophisticated radar and sensors, Postol says. "What the Missile Defense Agency wants us to believe is that the big trick is hitting the target. No, it isn't. The big trick is detecting the target." Although Kadish questions whether a crude missile launched by a rogue nation would include countermeasures, Philip Coyle, the former Pentagon testing boss, says: "If they're smart enough to build ICBMs, they're smart enough to build countermeasures."
In the face of such doubts, skeptics ask, why the rush? They note that since its failed test of six years ago, Pyongyang hasn't tested another long-range missile, so even if it's continuing to develop one, it can't be far along. And while North Korea may have built a handful of nuclear bombs, some experts insist it's at least a decade away from building one small and lightweight enough for a warhead. "There's plenty of time to continue testing the system to see if it works," says retired Army Lt. Gen. Robert Gard Jr., one of 49 retired generals and admirals who recently wrote to the president in opposition to the deployment.
Counterpunch. If and when the North Koreans readied an ICBM for launch, adds Coyle, the United States would know it. "We'd never wait until the thing was launched. We'd blow it up on the ground." And there's always the old Cold War standby, deterrence. American spy satellites would quickly detect an ICBM launch, pinpointing its origin and guaranteeing overwhelming retaliation, says Gard. "I've not noticed any suicidal tendencies on the part of [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Il."
Yet supporters say that delaying deployment in the face of a growing North Korean threat is risky. It's foolish to trust the sanity of foreign despots, says Sen. Wayne Allard, a Colorado Republican. "Some of these leaders . . . you worry what they're thinking."
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