As they were throughout the first quarter, inflation and interest rates will continue to be big topics of discussion this week. Friday's tepid jobs report certainly helped assuage fears inflation hawks harbor over rising wages. But investors will want to be reassured again this week that wage pressures aren't building in the economy. One key report is the Challenger layoff survey, which is due out on Tuesday. Also, while economic speeches can be as boring as reading the phone book, investors are paying more attention these days to remarks by Federal Reserve Board officials, in hopes of getting a glimmer of a clue as to what the central bank is thinking about interest rate policy. Two such speeches by Fed officials—one a Fed governor and the other by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia—are scheduled this week.
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Monday, April 4:
FED SPEAK: Federal Reserve Board Governor Edward Gramlich is scheduled to speak at the National Press Club in Washington. The topic: the economy, of course.
EARNINGS TO WATCH: Jos. A. Bank Clothiers.
Tuesday, April 5
LAYOFF REPORT: The outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas will release the results of its March layoff report, which tallies up job-cut announcements made by corporate America last month. The worry is that if companies don't announce as many layoffs as they did in February, then investors may regard that as a sign that the job market is improving and that wage pressures are building.
NONMANUFACTURING INDEX: Results of the Institute for Supply Management's nonmanufacturing index, which tracks the health of the service economy, are due out this morning.
EARNINGS TO WATCH: American Greetings and Research In Motion.
Wednesday, April 6
REFINANCING INDEX: This morning the Mortgage Bankers' Association will report on the level of refinancing activity in the nation. Households typically don't refinance when mortgage rates are rising, as they have been in recent weeks. But given the number of families who have taken out adjustable-rate mortgages lately, it's possible that some regard the latest rise in rates as the last opportunity to trade in their adjustable rate loans for fixed rate mortgages.
EARNINGS TO WATCH: Alcoa, Bed Bath & Beyond, and Monsanto.
Thursday, April 7:
CONSUMER CREDIT: The Federal Reserve Board will release its latest report on consumer borrowing trends. With interest rates on the rise, economists will be paying particularly close attention to the total amount of consumer credit outstanding. A surprising jump in household debt could be a negative sign for the health of the economy.
FED SPEAK: Anthony Santomero, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, will share his thoughts on the economy before a National Economists Club luncheon this afternoon.
EARNINGS TO WATCH: Accenture, Pier 1 Imports, and Rite Aid.
