The Hidden Cost of AIDS
The pernicious plague, now spreading misery around the world at an alarming rate, may also plunder the global economy over the next decade
Beneath the surface. It is impossible to measure how deeply the mining labor force has been wounded by AIDS. Underground mechanic Henry Siame says one of the workers in his shift has been off sick for the last six months, and though Siame suspects he has AIDS, no one really knows. Workers known to be HIV positive frequently become outcasts, so few ask to be tested. "It is very rare for people to know for sure who has AIDS and who doesn't," says Mavuto Gondwe, health and safety director of the Mineworkers Union of Zambia. Still, copper company medical adviser John Mesange notes that tuberculosis, one of the most commom symptoms of AIDS in Zambia, has increased dramatically among mine workers. And Gondwe, who receives a telex whenever a union member dies, has seen more and more telexes every month, a phenomenon he blames on the AIDS epidemic. Warns Dr. Mannaseh Phiri, vice chairman of the Copper Belt Health Education Project, "There are tremendous implications for the future performance of industry, and top management [is] only just beginning to realize it."
It is doubtful that Zambia can avert a human and economic tragedy. So far, official statistics acknowledge only some 6,000 cases of AIDS and about 20,000 "AIDS related" cases since 1986. But the true scale of the plague is hidden by underreporting and the relative newness of the virus in the country. The government has made efforts to educate the public. One roadside billboard admonishes: "Drive carefully, love carefully!--Don't let AIDS ruin your life." But Father Elias Afwenye, a priest who works in the Copper Belt, notes that on weekends, the same number of prostitutes continues to walk the streets. Dr. Phiri explains that in the climate of economic collapse, "people think they have nothing to lose and little reason to live." If such a tragic mindset leads to more AIDS, the abyss of poverty can only grow deeper.
DRAINING THE WORLD'S ECONOMY Global dollar loss from AIDS by the year 2000 Worst-case scenario Best-case scenario $514 billion $356 billion
SAPPING GROWTH IN THAILAND AIDS could mean $8.7 billion in lost income $2 billion a year in foreign funds is at risk AIDS health costs could jump by a factor of 65
THINNING LABOR'S RANKS IN INDIA Income lost from AIDS could hit $8.4 billion Nearly 6 percent of tested truckers have HIV Health costs could reach $1.6 billion by 2000
CRIPPLING FISCAL OPTIONS IN BRAZIL Ranks 4th in global AIDS cases Needs $600 million to help AIDS victims $116 billion in foreign debt hurts AIDS efforts
HURTING THE DOMINICANS 9 percent of sugar cane workers have HIV Sugar cane constitutes 40 percent of exports Heterosexual sex causes 70 percent of HIV
WASTING THE LAND IN UGANDA 8.3 percent of the population has HIV 86 percent of workers are in agriculture Coffee makes up 88 percent of all exports
RISKING EARNINGS IN ZAMBIA The Copper Belt has 45 percent of AIDS cases 12 percent of world copper is from this area 95 percent of foreign earnings is in copper
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