Apple's iPhone Counts on Being Cool
Then there is that missing keypad, which Apple replaces with a touch-screen version that is better than most. "The keyboard doesn't suck," Greengart says. But people like the tactile feedback of hard keys, which makes it easier to find and press the right one, and so far haven't embraced other phones without them. And getting the phone right is the most important thing, says Mike McGuire, an analyst at the market research firm Gartner. "It's first got to be a good voice box," he says. (More of the iPhone's pros and cons are at www.usnews.com/iphone.)
Branching out. Expectations—from consumers, investors, and industry analysts—are so high that if the phone is uncomfortable or the multimedia features beset with bugs, the hit to Apple's reputation could be severe.
It seems forever ago, but Apple has stumbled, including with the Cube desktop and the Newton hand-held computer. Even a bug-free phone that makes gadget geeks weep would be hard pressed to make Apple's goal of 10 million sold by the end of next year. That's only 1 percent of the world market, but most of the world is buying cheap phones for $50 or less.
One iPhone model in one market, even a market as big as the United States, won't do it, says Purdy at Frost & Sullivan. He says Apple will quickly need other versions to make its sales goal, perhaps even one with a keyboard that could appeal to corporate E-mail users.
The iPhone must also move quickly overseas. On the plus side, Europe and Asia already possess well-developed, high-end mobile-phone markets where consumers are more immune to sticker shock. Of course, that also means Europe and Asia have markets full of seasoned corporate competitors. Meanwhile, manufacturers like Samsung and Nokia are also readying new models for the U.S. market. Some may appear sooner than expected; Verizon, for one, is said to be planning a quick answer to the iPhone.
It's just part of a frenzy unleashed in recent months by the iPhone's pending arrival, a level of anticipation unmatched this summer, except perhaps for a story about a certain boy wizard. In thinking about the iPhone phenomenon, Jesse Drew, acting director of technocultural studies at the University of California–Davis, says he's reminded of his young son's fascination with Harry Potter and his longing for the ultimate in hand-helds. "Everybody," he says, "wants a magic wand."
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