Summer Air Travel Survival Guide
Flights are full-and late. You need a plan. This one helps you dodge airports that inflict pain
An airline is a peculiar business, because the fortunes of the company often run in inverse proportion to the well-being of the customers. Travelers love to pay fire-sale prices to fly on big planes with lots of empty seats. But that usually happens only when airlines have too many flights and are spiraling into financial turmoil. When the airlines are healthy, it's usually because their planes are flying nearly full, and they can command stiff prices for every cramped seat-which makes travelers grumpy.
Well, don't look now, but after five major bankruptcies and billions of dollars in losses over the past six years, the nation's airlines are finally poised to earn a decent profit in 2007. And yes, travelers will feel the pinch. Carriers like Delta, United, American, and US Airways have slashed the number of seats on overserved domestic routes, trimmed their fleets, and shifted many of their biggest planes to more profitable overseas destinations.
The upshot for fliers: It's going to be a bumpy summer travel season. "Last year was a tough one for the flying public," Marion Blakey, head of the Federal Aviation Administration, said recently. "This year is off to an equally tough start." Actually, it's worse. The proportion of flights arriving on time has tumbled to 71 percent so far in 2007, the lowest level since the Department of Transportation starting tracking performance 20 years ago. Planes are flying nearly as full as they ever have. And summer, the busiest travel season, is usually when traveler frustrations boil over. "The whole system is more vulnerable to shocks, and that could impact consumers," predicts Bill Warlick, an airline analyst at Fitch Ratings. "The passenger experience is going to be tested."
Where will the hassles be worst? To find out, U.S. News designed an exclusive Airport Misery Index that ranks airports according to a combination of on-time performance and load factor-the percentage of seats filled with passengers. Using data from the Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics, we ranked 47 large airports and 53 regional airports to determine which have the best and worst combination of delayed planes and crowded flights (charts for best and worst major airports are below). The complete rankings are at www.usnews.com/airtravel.
The U.S. News index confirms the suspicions of many frequent travelers. Big "hub" airports that carry lots of connecting traffic-like Detroit, Minneapolis-St. Paul, and Chicago's O'Hare-rank among the worst for late departures and crowded flights. And crowded planes go hand in hand with delayed flights: The majority of airports with delays above the median also have load factors above the median.
But travelers can also gain some insights from the index that might make their summer travel a little easier:
Smaller airports are generally better. The catch, of course, is that there are relatively few nonstop flights from regional airports, and getting to most destinations requires a connection. But on routes where nonstops are available, the smaller the airport, the easier the trip. There are nonstops to Los Angeles from both San Francisco and Oakland, for example, and while San Fran offers more choices, the Airport Misery Index shows that flights out of Oakland are less full, with on-time performance nearly 8 percentage points better. In Houston, on-time performance is about the same at both nearby airports, Hobby and Intercontinental. But flights out of Hobby are only about 58 percent full, compared with a 79 percent load factor on planes leaving Intercontinental.
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