Hazy Vistas for the Stock Market's Bull Run
Hazy Vistas for the Stock Market's Bull Run
It may sound far-fetched, but the fate of the stock market next year may well rest on a single product from a single U.S. company. Before Microsoft delayed the release of its much-anticipated new operating system, Vista, the software launch was supposed to fuel holiday spending on personal computers. But since Microsoft has pushed back to January the consumer sale of its first new operating system in five years, the stakes are much higher. Since August, the stock market has rallied thanks to a big run-up in technology. Investors are banking that tech company profits will soar next year-20 percent, according to Thomson Financial, versus just 9.5 percent for the broad market. But tech's ability to meet and exceed expectations will hinge on Vista's adoption. "The big catalyst for tech next year is going to be the whole Microsoft Vista event," says Chris Orndorff, managing principal of Payden & Rygel. So far, expectations are modest. Merrill Lynch does forecast a 17.1 percent jump in consumer PC sales next year. But that's actually slower growth than in 2005. Meanwhile, corporate PC sales are expected to grow just 3.3 percent, as only 14 percent of corporations say they will upgrade to Vista in 2007.
What Are the Holidays Without Pink Slips?
Finally, poetic justice for the labor market. After suffering through years of corporate downsizings, rank-and-file workers have something to be thankful for this year: Pink slips are being handed out at a much slower pace. According to the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, companies have announced 785,179 layoffs so far this year. That's down 19 percent from last year's pace. Meanwhile, the corporate chieftains who have been wielding the cost-cutting ax are losing their posts in record numbers. So far this year, 1,347 CEOs have left or been forced out of their jobs, according to a Challenger survey. That tops last year's record of 1,322. It's also more than twice the tally in 2004.
Walk Slowly Away From That Xbox 360, Mr. Big Spender
Women may make 80 percent of the purchasing decisions in the typical household, but they're not the prime candidates to bust the family's holiday budget this year. Men are more prone to going on a shopping bender, a survey shows. Only 3 percent of women say they will spend more than $500 on a single gift this year, but 17 percent of men plan to make the grand gesture. And three quarters of men plan to spend as much or more than last year, compared with two thirds of women. Perhaps it has something to do with which gifts are popular this season. According to the survey by the market research firm Compete, the hottest gifts for adults are expected to be tech gadgets, led by the Xbox 360, the Nintendo Wii, and the Apple iPod.
This story appears in the December 18, 2006 print edition of U.S. News & World Report.
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