An Oil Rush in (Yes) Iraq
The Kurds may be sitting on buried treasure, and foreign firms want to do business
That's the consensus view. The U.S. government has expressed concern about companies investing in Kurdistan before the rest of Iraq is ready. "If the Kurds pass their own law, it definitely complicates things-the opportunity for cooperation probably diminishes," says one senior U.S. official. "But it's a great negotiation tactic-you offer something up that's your ideal and then go from there."
To the Kurds, however, their law is most definitely not just a starting point. In fact, though they are involved in the negotiations over the central hydrocarbons law, Kurdish officials say it will not mean much to the region. "Not for investing in Kurdistan, it doesn't," says Hawrami. "But it does matter for the Kurdish people, because we need our fair share of revenue from the rest of the regions!"
So the companies are going with what is available now. Hawrami comes into the room after having had private discussions with one company and is instantly mobbed. Tibor Szatmari, the CEO of a Hungarian oil company that is the largest in Central Europe, waits to talk with him. When he gets an opening, he thrusts his company's annual report into the minister's hands. He admits that he's desperate to get one of these contracts. "If you wait until the situation is absolutely clear, you'll never go," Szatmari explains. "So you take a calculated risk."
Especially if you don't expect to be entering Baghdad anytime soon. "There's a paralysis in the central government," says one former senior U.S. official who quit to start a company that is now investing in Kurdistan. "It's the cultural baggage of the old regime-no one can make a decision without consulting the top guy."
So what's next? A mess, perhaps, as the Kurds press ahead despite Baghdad's explicit protests. Hawrami finishes his presentation on an upbeat note-and just the hint of a threat. "We will soon be awarding new contracts, perhaps on the strength of the new law," he says. "If you come to Kurdistan, we guarantee that you can go to Basra and work as well. After all, who's going to block you?"
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