An Oil Rush in (Yes) Iraq
The Kurds may be sitting on buried treasure, and foreign firms want to do business
Iraq has the third-largest proven oil reserves in the world, with an estimated 115 billion barrels, and oil companies have salivated over the country's potential since Saddam Hussein's regime fell in 2003. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 90 percent of Iraq's regions are unexplored, with only about 2,000 wells drilled, compared with about 1 million in Texas alone. But the industry has been in terrible shape for the past 20-some years. International sanctions against Saddam's regime meant that the infrastructure was not upgraded. Oil experts think that if international expertise were brought in and facilities modernized, Iraq could produce up to 4 million barrels per day (which is what it produced in 1990, before the invasion of Kuwait). "Iraq's entry into the market will change the entire global oil game," says Ed Chow, a longtime oil consultant who used to work for Chevron.
And that is what is so tempting for the oil companies. In the London townhouse, after the presentations, the questions come quickly from the audience, as much flattery as inquiry. "Congratulations," one oil company rep tells Hawrami. "When can we come negotiate with you?" His answer: "It's first come, first served. We welcome entrepreneurs, but we want structured companies with experience, who offer something we don't have ourselves."
Reserves. Oil companies say that though there are no producing oil fields in the Kurdish territory, initial exploration has shown geological structures similar to large oil fields in other parts of Iraq. The Kurdish government claims 25 billion barrels of proven reserves in the north, plus 20 billion barrels of potential reserves. A Norwegian company, DNO, began drilling last November and discovered its first well this spring. While there is much more oil in the south, the violence there prevents those reserves from being exploited now.
The Kurds themselves marvel at the change in international reaction to their advances. "Five to six months ago, no one would shake hands with a Kurd," says Hawrami. But in May, the Kurdish government created the Ministry of Natural Resources and appointed the minister. In July, Kurdish legislators passed an investment law, which spells out foreign investors' rights. And last month the Kurds published the final version of their own petroleum law. The regional government intends to move it through the Kurdish parliament this month-despite being asked by the United States to hold off for the sake of national reconciliation. The Kurds have signed four contracts with foreign oil companies, and the government's website says it "expects a large-scale licensing round following the passage of the act."
Downstairs, over bites of salmon and pasta, the oil executives feel one another out warily. One congratulates another on a just signed production-sharing agreement. Another group discusses options for doing seismic testing in Kurdistan (there are only two operators there now, both Chinese). Representatives from two major oil companies chat with a British government official. One was preparing to go to Kurdistan but decided to stay in order to meet with Hawrami. "What stage is the central government at with its petroleum law, anyway?" one asks. "I'm not sure," answers the other. "I guess if there's a conflict, that would make things complicated."
advertisement
