A Plug For Hybrids
100-mpg prototypes are on the road. Needed: safe, cheap batteries
Perhaps understandably, electric power companies have emerged as strong plug-in promoters, with Pacific Gas & Electric even including fliers in September bills asking its 5.1 million customers to petition automakers to speed development. Utilities obviously would sell more electricity if people plugged in to drive. But it would also allow them to make use of their enormous stores of off-peak capacity. Industry studies say if millions of plug-ins took to the road tomorrow, no new power plants would be needed. A plug-in would draw energy equivalent to that of an electric space heater. While the consumer would pay more for electricity, it would be more than offset by the savings for gasoline, even if pump prices dropped far below those of today. At today's prices, a driver would pay 94 cents to the power company to drive 30 miles on plug-in power. To drive the same distance in the average U.S. car would cost $2.58 at the pump. But automakers are not convinced that 64 percent savings in fuel costs will offset the initial cost of the battery. Kramer's conversion cost $12,000, in addition to the $21,000 cost of the original Prius. He maintains that the battery cost could be driven down to $3,000 if it were mass produced. But in recent congressional testimony, Honda's environmental analysis manager, John German, estimated that the fuel savings over the life of the vehicle would be only $3,000. "There is no business case unless fuel prices rise to substantially more than $3 per gallon, fuel shortages occur, plug-in hybrids are heavily subsidized, or there is a breakthrough in energy storage," he said.
Burning issue. Big batteries add weight, decreasing performance. Most experts, both inside and outside the auto industry, agree that carmakers will turn away from the nickel metal hydride batteries now in all hybrids to lighter, more powerful lithium ion batteries-the kind that have become ubiquitous in consumer products like cellphones, iPods, and laptops. Of course, lithium ion batteries made news in recent weeks when the malfunctioning units in some laptops erupted into flames, resulting in the largest consumer electronic recall in history. PHEV advocates, noting that cars already tote an explosive substance-gasoline-insist safety issues can be addressed. Kramer's converted hybrid uses lithium ion batteries with a phosphate additive to quell overheating.
But Toyota executive engineer David Hermance says the bar is high for automakers. "I guarantee the battery's not ready," he says. "We won't bring a product to market unless it meets our internal durability and reliability tests." That's why Toyota has given no timeline on introduction of a plug-in hybrid. "It's generally regarded as inevitable that we will get a better battery," he says. "Nobody knows just when."
Plug-in activists are looking outside the auto industry for help. Especially encouraging was the move by Silicon Valley venture capital firm Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers to double its commitment to green technology investments to $200 million over the next two years. And the plug-in world is abuzz with rumors that Google.org, the for-profit philanthropic arm of Google, is poised to help, though the company will say little.
Despite the challenges of bringing plug-ins to market, energy experts say the concept has advantages over almost any other alternative now contemplated, including using hydrogen as a fuel. Andy Frank, meanwhile, continues to plug away."The difficulty is convincing the automotive industry to transition from where we are today, with the products in use today, to this new utopia, without having to introduce additional infrastructure," he says. "In our case, the infrastructure is the plug in the wall and the gas station."
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