The Great Energy Game
As demand soars, central Asia's oil and gas reserves are a magnet pulling in the world's powers
The Kremlin plans to expand a gas pipeline from the Black Sea to Turkey and to build another across the Baltic to northern Europe, in an attempt to choke off competition into Europe. It has also been trying to lock countries into long-term contracts, offering to pay central Asian producers higher prices, while threatening to cut off the supply to consumer countries in Europe. "Europeans allowed themselves to be divided and conquered by Russia," says a senior U.S. administration official, who recounts reports of Russians pressuring European officials to enter into exclusive gas supply agreements. "If they stood together, they would have huge bargaining power."
Perhaps anticipating this, Moscow signed a pact with Algeria in August that calls for coordinated gas prices and raises the specter of an OPEC-like cartel for gas. But as pipelines continue to open in all directions and the hub-and-spoke map gets cluttered, the region may be harder and harder to control. "We're not just talking about oil and gas going to the west, but also to the east and southeast. It's all going to happen," says Starr of Johns Hopkins. "The region is coming out from under the monopoly control of Gazprom and, with the help of these other countries, going back to its traditional place as the center for transcontinental trade." Just as it was in the 19th century.
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